Why Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un are desperate for each other’s help

As Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has isolated him on the international stage – and Western sanctions have hit his country’s economy – the Russian president has been casting around for ways to alleviate the pressure and feed his war machine.

First it was China, and its president, Xi Jinping. Mr Putin has consistently touted his good relationship with Mr Xi, and has used it to establish an economic lifeline from Beijing. In June, Chinese customs data showed that trade between the two nations amounted to $93.8bn (£74.7bn) between January and May 2023, up 40.7 per cent when compared to the same period the previous year. The data also showed that China’s exports to Russia were worth $43bn (£34bn) in the same period, up 75.6 per cent on the figure for January to May 2022.

Mr Putin’s desperation was clear when he and Mr Xi met in March. The Russian leader did not just roll out the red carpet, but was at pains to point out just how close the two leaders were. For China, Mr Xi has loftier goals. He is trying to make his nation more of a diplomatic force on the global stage. However, claims from Beijing that it is neutral on the war in Ukraine and is merely seeking peace between the two sides are severely undermined by the level of economic support given to Moscow.

Mr Putin used similar language in a speech at the end of last week, saying that there will be another meeting with Mr Xi in the near future: “Soon enough we will have some events and there will be a meeting with the Chinese president,” Mr Putin said during a conference with students. “He [Xi] calls me his friend, and I am happy to call him my friend, because this is a man who personally does a lot for the development of Russian-Chinese relations and cooperation in different areas.”

The bromance is alive and well. But it is clear that Mr Putin needs Mr Xi more than the other way round.

Now we turn to North Korea and its leader Kim Jong-un. Mr Kim is in Russia, having travelled there on his luxurious armoured train, for talks with Mr Putin. At the top of the agenda will be weapons and ammunition.

Expending thousands of artillery shells – and a significant number of missiles – each day in its now 18-month-long invasion of Ukraine, Russia is struggling to keep up its supply. And there are fewer and fewer places it can rely on to provide what it needs, as Western nations ratchet up sanctions.

The ties between the two leaders’ countries are historically deep. Pyongyang was reliant on aid from the Soviet Union for decades, with the collapse of the USSR contributing to declines in North Korean imports and food production, both factors in the deadly famine that took place in the 1990s. Mr Kim himself initially had a relatively cool relationship with Mr Putin and Mr Xi – with Russia and China joining the US in imposing strict sanctions over Pyongyang’s nuclear programme. However, Mr Kim visited China four times between 2018 and 2019, before then meeting Mr Putin in Vladivostok in 2019. The Covid-19 pandemic put paid to any further trips.

For Mr Putin, the increasing value of North Korea is clear. US officials have suspected since last year that North Korea is providing Russia with artillery shells, rockets and other ammunition – presumably copies of Soviet-era weapons – but a meeting is an overt display of the relationship between the two countries, allowing the Russian leader to demonstrate to the West that he is not being cowed.

The Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, visited the North Korean capital in July – alongside officials from China (Pyongyang’s largest trading partner) – in the first such visit by foreign dignitaries since the Covid pandemic. Mr Shoigu was shown weapons by Mr Kim – including the Hwasong intercontinental ballistic missile. According to analysts from NK News, a specialist site focusing on North Korea, the display also featured two new drone designs, including one resembling the primary offensive strike drone used by the US Air Force.

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Moscow would also be the senior partner in any arrangement, in contrast with the relationship between Russia and China.

For Mr Kim, there are the practical benefits of possible agreements over aid supplies, such as food, or advanced military technology related to satellites and nuclear weapons. But the biggest win for the North Korean leader is probably in the form of propaganda. High-profile diplomatic dalliances pre-Covid with former US president Donald Trump were in the same vein, although the current increase in cooperation will probably provide a number of more tangible benefits than Trump’s all-mouth-and-no-trousers approach. Suggestions that Moscow could take part in joint military exercises with North Korea, or even tripartite exercises involving Beijing, are significant. It would be the North’s first such military drills with a foreign country since the armistice of the 1950 to 1953 Korean war.

Mr Kim would happily take the kind of bromance that Mr Putin believes he has with Mr Xi. The pair are said to have exchanged letters. In June, Mr Kim sent a message to Mr Putin marking Russia’s national day, in which he said he would “hold hands” with the Russian leader and that Russia had the full support of North Korea’s people. The Kremlin said last week that Moscow intends to deepen its “mutually respectful relations” with Pyongyang.

It is true that Mr Kim and Mr Putin need each other right now – but the Russian president’s need is probably more desperate.