‘Russia’s secret services are hurting’: Paul Whelan’s detention could mark new era in ‘spy’ detentions

More than a week on from his arrest, we still have a lot to learn about the case of Paul Whelan.

We know he was arrested just before the new year. We know – belatedly – that he holds passports of four countries: his main residence (United States), his birthplace (Canada), where his parents are from (the UK) and his grandparents (Ireland). We know that he was a former US marine; served in Iraq; was discharged dishonourably for an attempt to steal $10,000 (£7,900); that he worked as head of global security for an auto company, visited Russia several times; and was somewhat of a Trump fan.

We have “learned” several things from stories published in media connected to the Russian security services.

These have suggested Whelan was arrested in a swanky Moscow hotel, in the shadows of the Lubyanka building, the infamous headquarters of Russia’s security agency. It was here, the least inconspicuous of locations, that a “recruit” supposedly handed Whelan a flash drive containing details of acting intelligence officers.

Beyond the murky lies the outright opaque.

We have little idea why Whelan befriended a number of young Russians, many with connections to the military, on Russian social media. We also don’t know the extent – if any – that Moscow’s behaviour was driven by the trial of Maria Butina, a Russian national who had just pleaded guilty to conspiring to act as a foreign agent in the US.

Friends and family have dismissed any suggestion that Whelan might have been working as an officer of the US intelligence services.

Almost immediately on learning of his arrest, his twin brother, David, said his innocence was “undoubted”.

The Independent has also spoken to several of Whelan’s social media friends, who made similar statements.

“Paul was friendly, open and interested in Russian culture and history,” said one, asking to remain anonymous. Like most of Whelan’s social media contacts, the friend initially connected with him over the internet for language practice, and then later met in person.

“If he really was a spy, he would not have spent 10 years socialising with me,” the friend said. “I’ve never had any information that could be of interest to a spy. He wasn’t a spy.”

Veterans of the spy business tend to agree.

Gennady Gudkov, who worked in the KGB’s counterespionage section between 1982 and 1993, accepts that it was “not impossible” Moscow had suspicions about Whelan. His role as a former marine and security consultant in an automobile firm would have singled him out as a professional worth monitoring – for commercial purposes at least.

But Whelan’s profile was “worlds apart” from the profile of an intelligence officer, he suggested.

The reported nature of his arrest, meeting a contact in a hotel in central Moscow, all flew in the face of such a possibility: “There are two moments in spying that are the most dangerous: recruiting and connecting with an agent. It is almost inconceivable the United States could have considered sending in someone without diplomatic cover to do these jobs.

John Sipher, a former head of CIA Russia operations, rejected any link with his alma mater.

Russia was currently as “hostile” an environment for western intelligence as the Soviet Union, he told The Independent. That, a priori, ruled out “poorly planned and silly operations”.

“Of course, Whelan might be a fantasist or someone who thinks that his freelance efforts might be his ticket into something bigger,” he says.

“But we would never make a clandestine meeting as described. And Vladimir Putin knows that. He knows that this is not at all how we operate.”

The arrest instead continued “a pattern of behaviour … setting up innocent people for arrest”.

The absence of evidence is another intriguing issue. Usually in spy sting operations, Moscow takes great care to document such evidence, footage of which is then sent to state TV to be spun for propaganda effect. That was the case in 2006 with the British “spy rock” scandal, and, most recently in 2013, when American “diplomat” Ryan Fogle was arrested complete with weapons and a fake moustache.

“Clearly, Whelan’s contact was either set up by the FSB, or he was indeed recruited,” says Gudkov. “In which, case, Russia needs to show the world his operating manuals, his notebooks, his passwords.”

Instead, state networks and Kremlin officials have remained silent on the affair. Perhaps even more bizarrely, so too have their US counterparts.

In ordinary times, the arrest of an American citizen for espionage – innocent or not – would usually lead to a number of fairly predictable consequences. Condemnation, negotiations, swaps, retaliation – open and covert. And then, perhaps, back to “normal” levels of animosity.

But 2019 is unchartered territory.

On the one hand, the United States is in crisis, with presidential and executive branches in open war with each other. On the other, Russia is still reeling from its 2018 year of humiliation, when two botched operations revealed the details of several hundred serving agents.

“We’ve simply never been here before,” says Aleksandr Kolpakidi, a historian of the Russian secret services.

“The biggest riddle is what happens in the United States with a weakened president and emboldened executive. But it is also important to remember Russia’s secret services – essentially the government – are hurting and ready to fight with whatever they can get hold of.”

According to former CIA officer Sipher, the Kremlin may believe Whelan’s support for Donald Trump could become a bargaining chip.

“If Putin’s goal is to engage the White House and try to get them to negotiate or consider a trade, it helps with someone as fickle as Trump to have a vocal supporter in jail.”