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'Oui' vote stages revival in constitution battle

John Lichfield
Sunday 01 May 2005 19:00 EDT
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Precisely a month before the only poll that counts, opinion surveys are tracking an abrupt revival of support for the proposed European Union constitution in France.

For the first time in six weeks, an opinion poll suggests the "oui" camp - composed of the government and main opposition parties and most mainstream media - has regained the lead in the run-up to the referendum on 29 May.

Another poll places the "non" argument still narrowly ahead - by 52 per cent to 48 per cent - but losing ground rapidly.

Perhaps most significantly, both polls suggest there is a sharp increase in support for the proposed EU treaty from the centre-left and among members and sympathisers of the principal opposition party, the Parti Socialiste.

Support for the constitution has always been solid among supporters of President Jacques Chirac and the two centre-right parties. Until this weekend, there had been a rapid erosion of support among Socialist voters, angry with the centre-right government of Jean-Pierre Raffarin and tempted by hard-left arguments that the treaty is an "ultra-liberal" (ie hard capitalist) plot.

A significant moment in the campaign may have been the pugnacious TV appearance on Thursday of the former Socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin, who icily - and wittily - dismissed the "no" arguments of the left.

It was perfectly reasonable, M. Jospin said, to want to change the government but that should not be confused with support for an EU treaty, needed to make a 25-nation union function properly. When you want to end a marriage, M. Jospin, said, you divorce your spouse, not the priest who married you.

M. Jospin - although swept out of politics by a similarly black mood among French voters three years ago - remains a respected figure throughout the French left.

However, both the opinion polls published at the weekend were based on interviews conducted in the days before M. Jospin's appearance. There has been, in any case, a revival of the spirits of the pro-treaty left in the past fortnight.

An effective poster, widely distributed and available for download on the internet, shows sinister-looking pictures of five "non" supporters on the far right and far left and proclaims "Quand je vois ça je vote 'oui'" ("When I see this lot I vote 'yes'").

The successful first flight last week of the A380 Airbus - seen in France as a great European achievement with a pronounced French accent - may also subliminally have helped the "yes" argument.

More generally, the "no" camp appears to have run out of steam.

Opponents of the treaty seem to be paying the penalty for grossly inflating their case, claiming the proposed treaty would place at risk everything from abortion to wine-producers co-ops.

François Hollande, secretary general of the Parti Socialiste, whose own future is riding on a victory for the "yes"camp, said yesterday: "We now have the majority of Socialist supporters with us once again, Our arguments are beginning to be heard."

The proposed EU constitution incorporates and extends existing European treaties, simplifies decision-making in Brussels and creates a permanent EU council president and an European foreign minister.

It is generally accepted that the treaty, negotiated painfully over two years, would be killed stone dead by a French "non".

Polls also suggest that the Dutch, who vote a few days after France, may reject the treaty.

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