Spain's prime minister Rajoy set to be forced out as Basque party throws support behind no-confidence vote

Mariano Rajoy’s chances of remaining Spanish Premier evaporated almost completely after the moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) confirmed that its MPs would vote in favour of a parliamentary no-confidence motion against him if he did not resign.

Despite its tiny number of MPs - five deputies in a 350 seater parliament - it is widely believed that the PNV’s decision will tip the balance against Mr Rajoy in a no-confidence motion, by a mere four votes.

If successful, the Socialist party leader Pedro Sánchez, who tabled the no-confidence motion last week, would be automatically elected as Spanish PM, ending seven years of centre-right rule by the Partido Popular (PP) in Spain.

However, given that those voting in favour of the motion - ranging from Catalan Republican Nationalists, currently at daggers drawn with almost all Spain’s mainstream political parties, through to the left-wing Podemos coalition - have little in common beyond a desire to depose Mr Rajoy so a new government could prove highly unstable.

Should Mr Rajoy lose the vote, he will be Spain’s first PM to leave office as a result of a no-confidence motion since democracy was restored to the country more than four decades ago.

After losing his first two general elections in 2004 and 2008, Mr Rajoy’s retention of power since the PP’s landslide victory in 2011 has made him one of the country’s great political survivors.

Less than 10 days ago, despite running a minority government since 2016, Mr Rajoy managed to secure his umpteenth new lease of political life when he obtained approval for the 2018 state budgets - ironically enough, thanks to the PNV’s backing.

This came despite a number of corruption scandals engulfing his party and criticism for his handling of the Catalonia crisis.

But the impact of a court verdict last week in the so called Gurtel case, a cash-for-kickback scandal that saw the PP’s former treasurer, as well as 28 others previously linked to the party, sentenced to jail for 33 years for fraud and money-laundering, coupled with a €240,000 (£210,000) fine for the PP itself, left Mr Rajoy looking unexpectedly vulnerable.

The no-confidence motion’s chances of success increased dramatically yesterday morning when Mr Sánchez, 46, promised to maintain the PP’s budgets, which included a €540m subsidy to the Basque Country’s coffers. He also promised dialogue with the Catalan nationalists.

In the afternoon, one minority party leader after another took to the floor to promise Mr Sánchez their support, culminating with the crucial backing from the Basque Nationalists. The Spanish PM, having attended the first half of the no-confidence motion, notably failed to return to parliament to hear out what could well be his political death knell.

However, in a sign of his determination to fight on, possibly to the bitter end, top PP official and government minister Maria Dolores de Cospedal said that MrRajoy had no intention of resigning, a manoeuvre which would enable the PP government to continue in caretaker mode for weeks or months.

Although Mr Sánchez, a former economics teacher from Madrid, has promised fresh elections should he become PM, he has so far refused to specify a date.

This will also likely satisfy the PNV, given that they are, like all Spain’s traditional parties, fear they could lose ground to the new centre-right party, Ciudadanos - currently favourites in most polls.