Why Macron and Von der Leyen face a tough trip to China – even if they are all smiles on the surface

Still bruised from a gruelling battle over pension reform, France’s president Emmanuel Macron has arrived in China to assume the role of international statesman, something probably far more to his liking than the one of unpopular leader of a country on edge.

The top aim for Macron and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, during their three-day visit is to get president Xi Jinping to pressure Vladimir Putin to end or scale back ambitions for his 13-month invasion of Ukraine. The pair may end up playing the roles of “good cop” and “bad cop” with Von der Leyen very much the latter.

The European Commission president has been vocal in support for Nato and has had strong words for Beijing. In a speech late last month, she said Europe needs to be “bolder” on China because Beijing has become “more repressive at home and more assertive abroad”. Von der Leyen also laid out a number of issues – including accusations of human rights violations and bullying of other Asian nations. She concluded that Beijing had abandoned reform and openness in favour of control and security.

As for Macron, he could do with being able to celebrate some trade deals given his domestic political troubles. He arrived alongside dozens of French and European corporate envoys. He and Von der Leyen will also dangle the prospect of improved trade and a proposed Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) between China and the EU that has been on the back burner for a decade.

“China, with its close relationship with Russia, which has been reaffirmed in recent days, can play a major role,” Macron told a group of French citizens living in China on Wednesday. “We must not disassociate ourselves, separate ourselves from China.”

Getting China to alter its stance on Putin’s war against Ukraine will be a challenge. France and other Western nations are backing Kyiv with weapons, cash and crucial diplomatic support. China has been giving Moscow diplomatic backing and limited equipment, and the US believes its considering sending significant arms. Macron has said Europe will not accept that.

But France sees China as perhaps the only nation in the world with enough leverage over Russia to convince Putin to scale back his war ambitions. The business and economic dimensions of the trip are meant in part to sweeten the bitter diplomatic and geopolitical pill.

“There are two main goals for this trip: convey that it will be in Xi’s interests to push Putin for a peace deal that will be acceptable to Ukraine, and to repair diplomatic and trade relations between China and the EU after something of a chill,” Mujtaba Rahman, senior Europe analyst at the Eurasia Group political consultancy, said.

Macron reportedly consulted with US president Joe Biden before the trip, while Von der Leyen conferred with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.

Few believe that Macron can succeed in convincing China to turn away from Russia. Though the French president fashions himself a world leader, he has had few diplomatic successes outside of Europe. During his six years in office, he failed to persuade Putin from launching the Ukraine invasion (although obviously wasn’t the only one), failed to salvage the Iranian nuclear deal, failed to reset France’s image in Africa, and failed to prevent the US and UK from getting Australia to rip up a deal with Paris over submarines. However, the appearance of Von der Leyen on the trip will be heartening to both those in the EU that disagree with France’s approach, and the US’s.

Experts warn that Xi also may see the trip as a chance to work towards achieving a long-standing goal of driving a wedge between the EU and the US. Xi, who visited Moscow last month in a state visit loaded with pomp and ceremony, has already presented a Ukraine peace plan that has had a lukewarm response from both Moscow and Kyiv and a downright hostile one from Washington.

“Any peace plan which would in effect consolidate Russian annexations is simply not a viable plan,” Von der Leyen said in a speech late last month. “How China continues to interact with Putin’s war will be a determining factor for EU-China relations going forward.”

Macron last visited China in late 2019, just before the Covid-19 pandemic erupted. In the intervening years, major East-West rifts have emerged over security in Asian seas, the future status of Taiwan, and human rights abuses in China’s Xinjiang province and Hong Kong.

Both the West and China now fear a new global cold war is shaping up, pitting a United States-led series of partnerships (that includes European and some Asian nations) against an axis led by Beijing and Moscow (that includes Iran and Belarus).

But France, Germany and the rest of Europe are loath to view the rivalry with China quite as starkly as the US. There remain strong economic ties and interdependencies. China is Europe’s largest source of imports and third-largest export market, with trade in 2022 totalling nearly $850bn. The Macron and Von der Leyen visit follows recent trips to Beijing by the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, the European Council president, Charles Michel, and Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sanchez.

“I don’t think the Europeans and the French want to participate in the US-China rivalry,” says Rahman. “They are more cautious. The European approach is more nuanced. They don’t want to cast the relationship in the same way as the Americans.”

Unlike the US or UK, France has also suggested that Putin’s Russia will have a major role in European affairs even after the war with Ukraine, and has hinted that Kyiv’s goal of regaining control of all of its territories is likely unfeasible. That could win the French president a warmer reception in Beijing when Macron and Xi are to begin meetings in earnest on Thursday. Macron also has a track record of rallying European nations toward security, as well as financial and diplomatic arrangements independent of the US.

“This gives him a bit more leverage with the Chinese,” says Rahman. “This might help him edge Xi a little closer to the Western position.”

Analysts have also speculated that Beijing will dangle the prospect of taming Russia and ending the war in Ukraine in order to secure trade deals and favourable diplomatic conditions – with little intention of following through. China is growing increasingly adept at pushing its own narratives and throwing its diplomatic weight around.

Taking aim at that tough talk from Von der Leyen late last month, the state-run Chinese nationalist mouthpiece Global Times said this week that Europe would suffer from any attempt to cut economic ties with Beijing.

“The EU is in a difficult struggle as it is under great pressure from the US to adjust its economic relations with China. China and EU decoupling will only serve US interests, but make both China and Europe suffer,” it said.

But China could overplay its hand. Sending Putin significant military aid for use against Ukraine would likely push France and the EU further into the American camp. Beyond Ukraine, military action or invasion of Taiwan will also be a red line. China is reportedly enraged by the visit of Taiwan president, Tsai Ing-wen, to the US, where there was due to be a meeting with House speaker Kevin McCarthy in California on Wednesday.

In front of the cameras, Macron, Von der Leyen and Xi and a range of other Chinese officials will be all smiles. Behind the scenes, more tense discussions are anticipated. “We will never be shy in raising... deeply concerning issues,” according to Von der Leyen.