Belarusian opposition leader says there is ‘no turning back’ in fight against Lukashenko

The transformation of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya from housewife to world statesperson — via an election in which she likely trounced longtime autocrat Alexander Lukashenko — reads like a Hollywood fairytale.

But now a year into her new life, Tikhanovskaya insists she is living a nightmare.

“Every day of the last year has been an unhappy one,” she tells The Independent from exile in Lithuania.

“Every day, I saw thousands of lives being ruined in prisons. Every day my kids asked me when they are going to see their dad again.”

Tikhanovskaya’s unlikely journey began in May 2020, when she offered herself as a presidential candidate in place of her jailed activist husband.

Remarkably, she was registered for the vote – a decision Lukashenko has regretted ever since. Like many, he underestimated the former school teacher’s ability to inspire the nation around an idea of change.

Though Belarusians backed Tikhanovskaya in their droves, an ongoing post-election clampdown put paid to any immediate hope of democratic transformation. In more than 12 months of grim headlines, Lukashenko’s men in black have arrested tens of thousands, tortured hundreds and killed at least eight. Over 600 political prisoners remain in regime jails.

Tikhanovskaya was herself caught up in the initial repressive wave, fleeing the country in August following unspecified threats to her family. The opposition leader says she took the threats at face value – “the mention of children in any conversation is serious” – and says she believes she remains a “clear target” for Lukashenko’s hitmen.

Earlier this month, an exiled Belarusian activist was found hanged in Ukraine in suspicious circumstances, provoking a root and branch reassessment of her own security protocols.

“All of us have been guilty of underestimating Lukashenko’s cruelty,” she says. “We know we need to step up protection not only for political figures like me but for everyone we work with in Belarus.”

Tikhanovskaya says she stays in touch with activists in Belarus via secure daily conferences. For critics, that’s still too distant a link to make an impact on daily life. But the opposition leader insists she is contributing in the most effective way. “I unify people, unify initiatives, unify countries,” she says.

Propelled to the world stage, Tikhanovskaya has grappled with a steep learning curve. Without the time to read political manuals, she says she reverts to her most trusty resource: “the call of the heart”. As far as more formal political schooling is concerned, that has come from her not-infrequent interactions with world leaders – from UK prime minister Boris Johnson to US president Joe Biden.

She says they have responded well to her sincerity: “They are used to seeing grey suits, but they find themselves faced with a woman who is representing her jailed husband and tortured nation,” she says. “They understand there are no tricks with me.”

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Other aspects of international relations have been more frustrating. In her “naivete,” Tikhanovskaya says she believed the European Union could make an effective diplomatic intervention in Minsk. Instead, she was told the instruments the Belarus opposition wanted, such as imposing sanctions, as well as the use of cryptocurrency to support the opposition, “weren’t available”. Other decisions took an age. Like many in the team, she suspected Lukashenko’s own lobbyists had been at work.

“In the end, we got half measures, too late, and that directly led to the hijacking of a passenger jet,” she says.

The incident of May 23, in which Lukashenko commandeered a Ryanair plane to arrest Roman Protasevich, an opposition journalist flying on it, has helped crystallise thinking against the Belarusian regime. Soon after, the EU introduced robust sanctions focusing on aviation and parts of the vital potash industry. On Monday, the UK and US announced a similar set of restrictions.

Tikhanovskaya says it will take a while to understand if the sanctions have a chance of working. Nothing in the battle against Lukashenko was likely to happen overnight, she says. The important thing was that things appeared to be moving “in the right direction”.

“Like everything else, you carry on, crawling, crawling through, but crawling forwards,” she says.

“We might not yet see the light at the end of the tunnel, but we also know there is no turning back.”