Kohl sees life after poll defeat

CHANCELLOR Helmut Kohl yesterday acknowledged that his party had suffered a 'bitter and painful' defeat in regional elections on Sunday. But he insisted that there was still a 'realistic chance' that the Christian Democrats would remain in power in Bonn after federal elections in October, together with their junior coalition partner, the Free Democrats.

In the election in Germany's second-largest state, Lower Saxony - the first in a series of 19 elections across the country this year - the Christian Democrat (CDU) share of the vote slid to 36 per cent, the party's worst performance in the region for 30 years.

For the Free Democrats (FDP), the news was even worse: their share of the vote slipped below 5 per cent, so they failed even to win seats in the regional parliament (in the 1990 election they won nine seats). Their exclusion made it possible for the Social Democrats (SPD), who had until now ruled in coalition with the Greens, to gain an absolute majority - 81 of the 161 seats.

The FDP did not even attempt yesterday to put a gloss on its losses. The party, led by the Foreign Minister, Klaus Kinkel, acknowledged that this was a serious defeat. His message was that the party must 'simply get better'.

Christian Democrats sought, on the other hand, to interpret the results in a favourable light, emphasising that this was a vote 'for continuity' in a state where the Social Democrats already held power. The implication was that voters could, in October, also vote for continuity in the federal elections, after 12 years of CDU-FDP rule.

The vote for the Social Democrats remained steady, at 44 per cent, in what appeared to be a vote of confidence in the current Prime Minister, Gerhard Schroder, who has gained respect for his no-nonsense manner. It is unclear whether the news will be equally good for the Social Democrats elsewhere.

The clearest winners, in terms of share of the vote, were also the clearest losers, in terms of political power. The Greens increased their vote to more than 7 per cent, and increased their seats in the regional parliament in Hanover from eight to 13. But the failure of the FDP to make it into the Lower Saxony parliament at all gave the SPD extra seats, and thus its absolute majority of one. Leading Greens described this as a 'bitter pill' to swallow, but also emphasised that the voters' apparent support for the 'red-green' coalition with the Social Democrats in the past four years should send a clear signal to Bonn for the October elections

All the main parties expressed relief that the extreme-right Republicans, despite more than doubling their share of the vote, failed to break through the 5 per cent hurdle that would have given them seats in parliament. Equally important, despite much talk of Politikverdrossenheit, or 'political disenchantment', the turnout was 74 per cent, only a fraction lower than in 1990. In elections in Hamburg last year, both the establishment parties suffered badly, and an alternative protest party did well. But in Lower Saxony, the voters' commitment to existing parties seemed strong.

Although the result in Lower Saxony provides what the SPD leader, Rudolf Scharping, described as an 'encouraging signal' for this election year, Mr Scharping himself acknowledged that the battle is not yet over. Current opinion polls suggest that the Social Democrats have a clear lead over the Christian Democrats. But, in the words of Mr Scharping, the party 'should not put its nose so high in the air that the rain gets in'.

In recent weeks and months, Mr Kohl's chances of survival have been more or less written off by most German commentators. But seven months is a long time in politics - and his political obituary has been written many times during his 12 years in power. If there is a clear upturn in the economy before October, some analysts believe that Mr Kohl could still win.

(Photograph omitted)