Kohl faces regional defeat: It is the year of the voter in Germany and the first poll is in Lower Saxony on Sunday, writes Steve Crawshaw from Hanover

HONI soit qui mal y pense, says the familiar lion-and-unicorn coat of arms over the Leine Palace, in the centre of Hanover, and Dieu et mon droit. Here, in the capital of Lower Saxony, Germany's second-biggest state, the reminders of the connection with Britain's royal family are still conspicuous.

Admittedly, the connection is seen with some residual irritation. Once the Elector George I of Hanover moved to London in 1714, to be upgraded to King, the Leine Palace became known as the 'residence without rulers'. The Kings George were absentee rulers of Hanover for the next 100 years, causing much local discontent.

These days, the regional leader - the Landesvater, or 'father of the state', as the German phrase has it - is in no danger of being rebuked for absenteeism. Gerhard Schroder, the Social Democrat Prime Minister of Lower Saxony, is up for re-election this Sunday, as a nationwide election marathon, culminating in federal parliamentary elections in October, gets under way. Mr Schroder has been accused of many things - but never of lacking a high profile, on his home patch.

One voter summed up the widespread feelings about the abrasive leader: 'We don't love him - but we respect him.' Ask Mr Schroder if he is happy with that verdict, and he responds: 'Absolutely. If I am loved by my wife, that's enough for me.' The election is seen as a warm-up for the October elections, in which opinion polls suggest that Chancellor Helmut Kohl is heading for defeat. Mr Kohl's Christian Democrats (CDU) are especially keen to insist that there is no connection. As one CDU official privately admitted, the reason is clear: 'We say that, because we expect a bad result.'

In the past four years, when Mr Schroder has ruled in sometimes uneasy coalition with the Greens, he has gained a reputation as a political bruiser, who gets things done. His election slogan is: 'Listen. Decide. Act.' He used to be thought of as a left-wing radical, but has gained the respect of regional businessmen, who describe him as a powerful advocate of Lower Saxony's interests.

These regional interests, in turn, are important in Germany, where power is much less centralised than in pre- Thatcher Britain, let alone post-Thatcher Britain. Officials like to point out that the state, or Land, is bigger than Denmark and the Netherlands, and has a larger population than proposed new entrants to the European Union, like Austria and Sweden. In Germany, that size brings with it the appropriate political clout.

Mr Schroder hopes that he will gain a clear majority, allowing him to abandon the coalition with the Greens - though some of his own supporters are pleased to have the Greens' radical pressure, to prevent Mr Schroder getting too cosy with the industrialists.

The Christian Democrats, meanwhile, may be hampered by the apparent inexperience of their candidate, Christian Wulff, who has the look of a well-meaning but nervous choirboy.

Christian Democrat headquarters in Bonn is already bracing itself for bad news on Sunday night. Even if Mr Wulff is defeated, but does not slump below 35 per cent, that seems set to be officially interpreted as a 'success' - in a state where the CDU held power, until 1990.

This Sunday's election is the first of 19 this year, throughout the country - more than ever before in a single year. There are parliamentary elections in seven of the 16 Lander; municipal elections in nine Lander; plus Euro-elections, presidential elections, and federal elections. Unsurprisingly, this is known as Super-Election Year.

Lurking as the spectre at the feast, in Lower Saxony and elsewhere, is the far-right Republican Party. So far, opinion polls suggest that the Republicans will not break through the 5 per cent barrier, to get into the parliament which is housed in the Leine Palace. But almost one in three voters are still undecided.

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