Irish poll outcome uncertain despite yes vote predictions

The Republic of Ireland goes to the polls today for a vital vote on the Nice Treaty, with opinion polls suggesting a majority will give the go-ahead for EU enlargement. But with many voters still undecided, spirited campaigning was continuing up to the last moment as opponents of the Treaty tried to claw back gains made by its supporters in recent weeks.

Although a pro-Nice vote is viewed as the most likely result, Ireland's referendum results have often proved unpredictable and difficult to call and many in the Yes camp do not regard the outcome as settled. Those who run the rest of the EU are watching with bated breath in the fervent hope that Nice is approved, since a rejection would hugely complicate plans to bring 10 more countries into the EU.

Although most of the No campaigners do not oppose enlargement, many voice concerns about Nice's implications for issues such Irish neutrality, the country's economy and a possible reduction of Irish influence in the EU. Neutrality has proved to be one of the most potent issues, with one poll identifying it as the foremost issue concerning those who will vote No. The Irish government says it has successfully protected neutrality by securing an EU declaration that it will be respected.

The most recent opinion poll suggested that 41 per cent will vote Yes and 27 per cent No, with 24 per cent undecided. Such a pattern would reverse that seen in the first Irish referendum on Nice last year. Then, Nice was rejected by 54 per cent to 46, to the dismay of the government. That result has been attributed to complacency on the part of the government and other pro-Nice elements, which resulted in a turnout of only 34 per cent.

The intense campaigning of recent months means that a higher turnout is expected this time, and the issues involved have been exhaustively aired in the media and at public meetings. The Dublin establishment, in terms of the government and all the major parties, big business and the media, have all urged a Yes vote. Former prime ministers and Irish European figures have done the same.

But many Irish voters retain a strong anti-establishment streak and are distinctly non-deferential. This tendency has been reflected by, among others, Sinn Fein, whose party president Gerry Adams, who has been campaigning in the Republic. He has attacked what he described as the "condescending and patronising attitude" of larger political parties.

The government, headed by the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, is highly unpopular at present, and it had feared that voters would vote No to express their disapproval and punish it. But polls suggest this will not be an important motivation for voters.

In a front-page editorial headed "Nice is a moral issue and our answer should be Yes," the Irish Independent declared: "A No vote would be a vote for the chip on the shoulder, the backward step, sour begrudgery. A Yes vote will be a vote for everything that is good about the European project."

The Irish Times, also urging a pro-Nice vote, declared: "Ireland's constructive engagement with Europe has released creative energy and enabled us to achieve real independence. A No vote would jeopardise Ireland's influence, marginalise its role and threaten its prosperity."

Just under three million people are eligible to vote in the poll, though some hundreds who live on off-shore islands, which are among Europe's furthest-flung outposts, have already cast their votes.