Barnier ousted: what does France’s latest political crisis mean for Macron and the country?

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has lost a no-confidence vote that has ousted his government and plunged the country into a fresh political crisis. Not since 1962 has a French government been brought down by a vote of no confidence.

Mr Barnier, who has been in the job for less than three months, is standing down – having triggered the no-confidence motion by trying to force a budget through a deeply fractured parliament without a vote.

The genesis of this crisis can be traced to president Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election in the summer – and try to give his centrists a clear mandade from the people. But that backfired to leave no single party in control of parliament.

The three blocs in parliament are: Mr Macron's centrist coalition allies, the left-wing coalition New Popular Front, and the far-right National Rally.

The New Popular Front actually topped the July election and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally was the single party with the most votes, But Mr Macron’s centrists eventually struck a deal with the centre-right and conservatives to form a government and Mr Barnier was appointed as prime minister.

The left-wing and the far-right - usually at odds - have been united against Mr Barnier. The New Popular Front are angry that they, as the largest bloc, have not got a PM of their choosing, while National Rally have taken particular issue with the budget.

Mr Barnier's draft budget had sought to cut the fiscal deficit, which is projected to exceed 6 per cent of national output this year, with €60 billion (£50bn) in tax hikes and spending cuts. It sought to drag the deficit down to 5 per cent next year.

Le Pen and her party accused Mr Barnier of imposing austerity measures and failing to address citizens' needs.

Mr Barnier’s push to force through ther budget using special constitutional powers, without other parties getting to vote on it, was the final straw.

Given the fractured nature of French politics at the moment, this crisis could last for some time. Here are some scenarios for what could happen next:

What does it mean for Macron?

Under the constitution, Mr Macron's term in office runs until the spring of 2027, so the crisis in parliament is separate. But opponents on the hard left and far right have demanded he resign to take responsibility for the political mess.

As he lacks a majority in parliament, Mr Macron's opponents could also shoot down one pick for prime minister after another, prolonging the poliical paraylsis.

Le Pen says a government reshuffle stands little chance of long-term success, while a dissolution of parliament is constitutionally not possible before July – 12 months after the last election – leaving only one option: Mr Macron steps down.

However, the constitution gives extensive powers to the president in crisis situations. He can call referendums and has the ability to invoke emergency "full powers" under Article 16, drafted by the founders of the Fifth Republic with wartime in mind. The president has responded to demands to resign by pledging to fulfil his role "with all my energy, to the last second".

Mr Macron's surest path to naming a new prime minister able to form a government and pass a budget before the end of the year is to yield to the budget demands of National Rally. But Mr Macron will resist that.

Mr Barnier’s government can stay on in a caretaker capacity to handle day-to-day business while Mr Macron appoints a new prime minister and government.

What about the budget that triggered the government collapse?

If parliament has not passed a budget by 20 December, the government can propose emergency legislation that would roll over spending limits and tax provisions from 2024, pending the installation of a new government and a new 2025 budget bill.

The proposed €60 billion in tax increases and spending cuts, welcomed by investors and ratings agencies, would then fall by the wayside. Le Pen's party has said households would be better off in this scenario, something Mr Barnier's government had denied. It says more people will end up paying tax or additional tax if thresholds cannot be adjusted for inflation.

A caretaker government could invoke constitutional powers to force through the 2025 budget

A government can also invoke constitutional powers to pass the 2025 budget by executive order if parliament has not approved it by 20 December.

However, that would be highly risky, experts say, as it is unclear whether a caretaker government can use such powers. Doing so would inevitably trigger more political turmoil.