Europe's population 'may fall by 40%' by 2100'

Europe's population could fall by up to 40 per cent by the end of the century because of declining birth rates and the tendency for women to have babies later in life, researchers have found.

For the first time in human history, the population has begun to experience what demographers call "negative momentum", when a shrinking population goes into a spiral of decline. Wolfgang Lutz of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, says that Europe experienced a "flip" from positive to negative momentum in 2000 because fewer babies were being born to younger mothers. "Negative momentum has not been experienced on a large scale in world history. It is now like sailing against a current running towards population shrinkage and ageing," Dr Lutz said.

The huge social and economic costs of the shift to an ageing population, where one European worker would be expected to support two pensioners by 2065, could be offset if governments encouraged women to start families earlier, he said.

"Giving women more choices is easier said than done. It would involve revamping the career pattern that is structured around the male life course with no room for a baby break," Dr Lutz said.

The study, run with Brian O'Neill and Sergei Scherbov of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, is published today in the journal Science.

The scientists found that the current average European birth rate of 1.5 children per woman could be increased to 1.8 if women could be encouraged not to postpone the time when they had their first baby.

With fewer children entering the younger generations, the spiral of negative momentum has begun. If the average age of childbearing continues to increase for another 40 years then there will be a built-in tendency for the EU's population of 380 million to decline by between 55 million and 144 million by 2100.

The calculations do not taken into account immigration from outside the EU but the scientists warn that policies designed to counterbalance the population decline by relying on foreign migrants could trigger their own social problems.