EU set for rocky ride as Greece takes helm

Less than five months before Greece hosts an EU summit in Thessaloniki, the crowning point of its European presidency, the authorities in Athens have decided to switch the venue because of security worries.

Thessaloniki's university enjoys a legal right to deny police access to its campus and, amid fears that protesters would mass there, the government is planning to move the gathering of European heads of government to a new site 50 miles away.

Organisation has never been Greece's strongest point and, as it takes over the EU presidency, familiar questions are being asked about its ability to handle its six months in the hot seat. After the smooth nordic efficiency with which Denmark managed its presidency, which rotates among the 15 member states, diplomats are bracing themselves for a more rocky ride.

George Papandreou, the Greek Foreign Minister, took colleagues by surprise last week when he announced an EU mission to seven moderate Arab countries to try to head off the prospect of war against Iraq. The lack of prior consultation with the EU's big powers was, according to one EU diplomat, "amazing".

Those with long memories remember previous Greek presidencies with mixed feelings: in 1983 Greece blocked the EU from condemning the Soviet Union's shooting down of a South Korean airliner, and in 1994 it presided over the crisis in the selection of the new European Commission president, as the UK vetoed the candidature of Jean-Luc Dehaene, the former Belgian premier.

But this time there are good reasons to be more optimistic. For one thing, the agenda for the presidency during the next six months is relatively light, now the the EU has clinched its historic deal on enlargement. The outstanding issue is Cyprus – one that plays to Greece's strengths. Experienced diplomats argue that it is unwise to underestimate the Greeks. As one put it: "It usually appears chaotic, but at the end of the day, they tend to pull a rabbit out of the hat."

The Greek capital's troubled preparations for next year's Olympics is a case in point. At one point it appeared that the games might have to be switched elsewhere, but Denis Oswald, the International Olympic Committee's chief overseer, concluded after an inspection that Athens was finally "taking Olympic shape".

Security worries, which strained Greek relations with the US and Britain, have been defused by the efficient dismantling of the November 17 urban guerrilla group, billed as the world's most elusive terrorists and blamed for 23 killings since 1975 – including a British diplomat, Brigadier Stephen Saunders, who was their last target in 2000. The authorities claim to have arrested the bulk of the organisation and a mammoth trial is set to commence in March.

The one big cloud on the horizon is Iraq. A US-led war threatens to expose the gulf between the moderate Western rhetoric of the government and anti-American public sentiment. In opinion polls 97 per cent of Greeks opposed the Kosovo bombings, and if the EU presidency were obliged to declare its support for military action against Iraq, the Greek government would face a domestic political storm. But, as Greek diplomats point out, popular opposition to war is hardly restricted to Greece.