EU nations turn to authoritarian states to solve migrant boat crisis

It is a problem that the EU has struggled to deal with for years: what to do with the thousands of refugees and migrants seeking to reach the continent’s shores by sea? The answer from officials in Brussels? Outsourcing the issue to authoritarian governments in countries people leave or cross to get to Europe.

European Union leaders this week are set to bolster plans to pay the governments of Tunisia, Turkey and others to keep refugees and migrants – including some escaping war and political repression – from attempting to make the perilous journey across the Mediterranean.

A two-day Brussels summit on migration and other pressing matters on Thursday and Friday comes after the capsizing earlier this month of a fishing boat carrying hundreds of refugees and migrants, many of whom appear to have perished.

“The recent tragic shipwreck in the Mediterranean, and the many lives lost, is a stark reminder of our need to continue working relentlessly on our European migratory challenge,” said European Council president Charles Michel in a press release ahead of the summit.

The European coastguard agency Frontex counted more than 50,000 attempts to breach Europe’s borders in the first five months of 2023, the most since 2017 and twice the number during the same period in 2022. A rescue ship on Tuesday saved 86 people attempting to reach Europe off the coast of Libya. Most were from Gambia and Senegal.

According to the International Organisation for Migration, more than 1,700 people have died or disappeared while trying to cross the Mediterranean this year, a significant rise from the 1,400 during the same period last year. The organisation has counted at least 27,600 migrant deaths in the Mediterranean since 2014.

The increase in crossings has prompted alarm among some European officials worried that a surge in migrants could further embolden the far-right. A number of countries, including Poland, Austria and Hungary are blocking any meaningful attempt to equitably share out refugees arriving in Greece, Italy, Malta or Spain.

Among the EU’s plans is to pay Tunisia’s increasingly authoritarian president Kais Saeid to keep migrants from boarding boats to head to Europe. Saeid, who has been criticised for reversing his country’s democratic gains, could be rewarded with financial benefits for cooperating with the EU on preventing this kind of migration.

The autocratic government of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also set to receive up to another €3.5bn (£3bn) to keep several million Syrian and other refugees inside the country – bringing the total amount Ankara has received to €13bn in recent years.

Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt are also set to receive €367m in security equipment to prevent the launching of boats.

Following other failed attempts by European member states to come to a consensus on migrants, collaborating with regimes abroad has emerged as a key focus, but one that imperils other goals such as upholding human rights.

“The objective of seeking to prevent migration takes precedence over other policy objectives,” says Hanne Beirens, Europe director of the Migration Policy Institute. “It potentially has the risk of backfiring on the EU and EU member states. These states are not predictable and are willing to use migration pressure to obtain their objectives.”

Advocacy groups worry that the EU is again taking up a failed approach.

“The EU should be engaging with countries in the neighbourhood, but all the efforts should be focused on supporting the rights of people on the move,” said Imogen Sudbery, executive director for Europe advocacy at the International Rescue Committee.  “The focus now is really on deterring people from reaching Europe in the first place. But we know desperate people will not be deterred.”

In a letter to EU leaders ahead of the summit, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the need to “limit irregular departures” from Africa and Turkey, to “fight against migrant smuggling” and “work with partner countries” to ensure that people do not leave or transit those countries.

“Alternative legal pathways” should be found to enter the right way, she wrote. Ms von der Leyen noted that Libya received two more EU-funded patrol boats in February, and has “rescued or intercepted” 7,562 people trying to leave this year.

Earlier this month, officials announced tightened rules that make political asylum the only pathway to legal residency for many migrants. The aim was find a middle ground acceptable to enough states. Countries such as Greece and Italy, where migrants are arriving, would need to apply these stricter rules for those deemed unlikely to be accepted to stay. In return comes greater leeway to send back rejected applicants.

Other EU countries would then be given a choice of either accepting a certain number of migrants each year or paying into a joint EU fund.

“There is huge frustration that they have to process so many claims that do not have a basis,” said Ms Beirens. “There is a great push to make sure those who enter are legitimate asylum seekers.”

But some nations still aren’t happy. Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, said on Thursday that he still opposed the new rules announced and will demand the reform of Frontex and more funds for dealing with migrants.

“At the meeting of the European Council, I will propose a plan for secure borders,” Mr Morawiecki told a press conference.

“No to forced relocation of migrants, no to the violation of veto rights by individual states and no to the violation of the principle of sovereignty of decisions, no to imposed penalties from Brussels.”

Meanwhile, researchers have also noted a surge in hostility in Middle East nations such as Turkey and Lebanon, which host the bulk of those fleeing the war in Syria. During 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections, both Turkey’s ruling party and candidates of the opposition demonised migrants.

Advocacy groups have pushed for solutions that would redirect a share of migrants to northern European countries.

“What’s really needed is a responsibility-sharing system,” said Ms Sudbery. “If the border nations did not bear a disproportionate responsibility for new arrivals and were better supported they would be more likely to support rescue operations and less likely to engage in pushbacks.”