Denmark warns that EU enlargement may be blocked

Europe's historic opportunity to enlarge eastwards could be lost for years, the Prime Minister of Denmark warned yesterday as his country prepared to take over the EU presidency.

Alarm is growing over the threat to the EU's expansion plans. In a series of strongly worded comments, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the centre-right Danish premier, admitted that he faced formidable obstacles in seeking to wrap up talks on enlargement by the end of the year.

Mr Rasmussen said another "no" vote in the second Irish referendum on the Nice Treaty, which lays out changes needed for enlargement, would be a "political disaster". His warning came as the Irish Prime Minister, Bertie Ahern, stepped up his efforts to win the referendum in the autumn, arguing that Ireland would look "selfish in the eyes of the world" if it rejected the treaty.

Denmark takes over the presidency on Monday and, by the time it holds a crucial summit in Copenhagen in December, the EU is supposed to have agreed how many countries will join and what benefits they will get.

Ten countries are expected to make the grade and join the current group of 15 in 2004: Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Malta, Cyprus, Slovenia, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. But prospects of a smooth negotiation have been hit by a series of problems including the Irish referendum, disputes over financing and political uncertainty in Germany.

In an impassioned plea Mr Rasmussen said: "Even a small delay in a decision on enlargement might result in a long postponement of enlargement. Can you imagine the disappointment in the new democracies in central and eastern Europe which have liberated themselves and prepared themselves?"

The Danish premier sought to increase the pressure on his fellow leaders to overcome their differences, arguing: "We have the historic opportunity to unite the continent by finalising enlargement negotiations in December. We cannot afford to miss it. We have an historical and moral obligation. I urge all responsible politicians in Europe to grasp the historic chance of reuniting Europe. The time has come to deliver on promises."

Denmark has set a tight timetable for agreement. By the beginning of November it wants the European Union to agree how much it will offer in subsidies to farmers from the new countries. But that deadline has been thrown into doubt by elections in Germany – which wants to restrict direct payments to farmers – on 22 September. A change of government in Berlin could mean that during October there is in effect no government to negotiate with.

Germany is one of several nations that want to scale back the current offer, whereby the new countries would initially receive only a quarter of the amount of direct farm aid the current 15 nations enjoy.

Mr Rasmussen said: "We must solve these problems no later than November because we need time to complete negotiations with the candidate countries. We cannot postpone this deadline; it could simply delay enlargement."

Since 1993, when a summit in Copenhagen laid down minimum standards of democracy and human rights for nations applying to join, Denmark has been one of the most enthusiastic advocates of enlargement. It sees great symbolism in completing the process at this year's Copenhagen summit. But its ability to complete the task rests partly on the will of the Irish electorate.

Mr Rasmussen insisted: "Ratification of the Nice Treaty is a political condition of enlargement. A new "no" [in the Irish referendum] would jeopardise the whole enlargement process". The rejection of Nice would, he added, be a "political disaster and the judgement of posterity will be severe".

The final problem facing the Danes is the deadlock over Cyprus, with little sign of progress in talks to end the division of the island. The Greek parliament has made clear that it will block any enlargement treaty without Cyprus. But admitting the Greek part of the island alone would provoke a rift with Turkey.