Coronavirus: France faces second wave when lockdown lifts in May, researchers warn
'Significant efforts will have to be sustained beyond 11 May to avoid a renewed epidemic,' scientists say
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France faces a second wave of coronavirus infections when it lifts lockdown restrictions next month, according to three leading research institutions.
Scientists at the Pasteur Institute, Inserm and the CNRS calculated that current transmission rates would mean less than 6 per cent of the French population will have been infected when containment measures begin to ease on 11 May.
"This level of immunity is far below the level necessary to avoid a second wave, if all the measures [currently] in place are lifted," the Pasteur Institute stated on its website.
The collective immunity required to avoid another major outbreak is currently estimated at 70 per cent, meaning "significant efforts will have to be sustained beyond 11 May to avoid a renewed epidemic".
There have been more than 155,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in France, resulting in 20,796 deaths.
Strict lockdown rules introduced on 17 March appear to be having a positive impact, with the number of patients in intensive care falling for the last week.
The research suggests that the lockdown has reduced the transmission rate of the deadly virus by 84 per cent, with the average number of people infected per case dropping from 3.3 to 0.5.
President Emmanuel Macron announced last week that restrictions would begin to be lifted on 11 May, beginning with the reopening of schools and some workplaces.
Social gatherings and leisure activities will remain banned until at least mid-July, meaning all cafes, cinemas and tourist attractions will stay closed indefinitely.
"There is hope but nothing is for certain in this battle," he said. "We need to put in all of our effort to stem the spread of the virus."
A second wave of coronavirus also threatens other countries planning to lift containment measures, including the US where the most cases and deaths have been recorded globally.
Robert Redfield, the director of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the US, said on Tuesday that the country's epidemic could get even worse this winter if it is combined with a flu epidemic.
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