‘The UK is going along the same lines’: France and Spain spark concern of second wave as Britain watches on

The situation on the continent paints a bleak picture. Cases are rising fast across Europe, with France, Spain, Croatia and Hungary among countries reporting a recent spike in coronavirus infections. Despite the progress made throughout summer, a second wave is now creeping into vision, one that – if certain estimates prove correct – could usher in a period of sustained mortality that surpasses the initial stages of the pandemic.

In France, data from the World Health Organisation (WHO) shows that the country now has a cumulative incidence rate of 114.8 cases per 100,000 people over the latest 14-day period. This marks a 105 per cent increase on the previous two-week window. According to the WHO, authorities are once again reporting community transmission, predominantly among younger people.

It’s a similar story across the border in Spain – the first western European country to record more than half a million cases. The milestone comes amid a continuing surge in infections, as millions of children make their return to school after a six-month hiatus. Figures from the health ministry show that the country has logged 49,716 new cases in the past week alone, along with 237 deaths.

In both France and Spain, hospital admissions are also slowly rising — perhaps the most reliable weathervane for the true direction of this pandemic. If those numbers continue to increase, so too will the number of deaths.

Although the two countries have some way to go before returning to the dark depths of early spring — the median age of sufferers has nearly halved; asymptomatic cases account for an increasing percentage of positive results; health institutions now feel much better prepared — there’s little doubt what is waiting around the corner.

Amid this climate of fear, the UK watches on with concern. There is a mounting sense among the government and health experts that we are now treading a similar path, destined to follow in the footsteps of our two worst-affected European neighbours.

“It’s still early days, but I do think the UK is going along the same lines,” Gabriel Scally, a member of Independent Sage and visiting professor of public health at the University of Bristol, tells The Independent.

The data suggests as much. Almost 3,000 positive tests were confirmed on Monday — the second day running that figures of this scale were reported in the UK. The seven-day rate in the UK has also risen above 20 cases per 100,000 people — the level at which the government considers imposing quarantine conditions on people travelling to the UK.

"We can see the epidemic is taking off again,” said Professor John Edmunds, a member of the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), on Monday. “I don't think we've hit that sweet spot where we've been able to control the epidemic and allow the economy to return to some sort of normality.”

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, the deputy chief medical officer, urged the British public to start taking the pandemic “very seriously again” or face a “bumpy ride over the next few months”. He warned that “people have relaxed too much", adding that “now is the time for us to re-engage and realise that this is a continuing threat to us”.

Worryingly, the trends characterising the outbreaks seen in France and Spain are now beginning to emerge in the UK, says Professor Scally. “As the numbers increase, which they are, we’ll start to see spill-over into care homes, nursing homes and hospitals,” he says. “That will cause chaos.”

He points to the example of Craigavon Area Hospital, in Northern Ireland, where four haematology patients recently died following an outbreak of Covid-19 among staff. Seven patients on the ward remain "very unwell”, while 20 members of staff have tested positive for the virus, with a further 56 in self-isolation. According to Professor Scally, the outbreak is rumoured to have been traced back to a staff party.

Outbreak events such as these — which carry a tragic human cost — are likely to become more common as the prevalence of the virus intensifies, he warns. While the UK has yet to record a significant increase in deaths or hospital admissions comparable to France and Spain, it only feels like a matter of time.

“I think there's a very high risk of it,” Martin McKee, a professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, tells The Independent. “No one can predict the future with any certainty, but there are enough signs to suggest we should be extremely concerned.”

He also points to the reopening of universities, colleges and schools as a potential accelerant for the spreading of the coronavirus — as has been the case in France, where children have also begun returning en masse to the classroom. Last week, French authorities announced that 22 schools had so far been closed because of outbreaks. Out of 60,000 schools, this may seem like a small figure, but teachers' unions within the country are concerned that the education system is not prepared.

It’s a view shared by Professor McKee and many others in the UK. “It's very worrying. We're very concerned given the amount of mixing there will be,” he says. There are lessons to be learnt from Norway and Denmark, he adds, which have brought in temporary facilities to ensure social distancing can be practised, and, more importantly, reduce the rates of the virus in the community.

“If there is little virus circulating in community, schools are safe because the probability that someone with the virus will come into the school is very low. So the main defence for opening schools is getting the rates down,” he says. “But these countries also have a very effective find, test, trace, isolate support system to allow them to respond quickly if there are cases. We don’t have that.”

Both Professor McKee and Professor Scally are in agreement that the UK’s test and trace system remains “fundamentally flawed” — perhaps explaining why we find ourselves sharing much in common with the likes of France and Spain, where authorities have similarly struggled to keep on top of the spread of the virus.

“You need a fully fledged, resourced, locally engaged find, test, trace, isolate and support system,” says Professor Scally. “But we still don’t have effective test and tracing. It feels like we’re back to where we were in March. One way or another, it's going to be a very rocky period.”