Battle for top EU job as Pat Cox squares up to Patten

Pat Cox, the Irish president of the European Parliament, yesterday said he would stand down as an MEP in June, clearing his way to become a candidate for the top job at the European Commission.

Although he did not formally declare his candidature for the post of Commission president, Mr Cox's interest in the job is one of the worst kept political secrets in Brussels, and yesterday he did little to dampen speculation in an emotional farewell speech to MEPs.

"Europe has been the cause in my political life," the outgoing Liberal MEP and president of the European Parliament said, promising to "continue serving that cause in any way I can".

With little more than five weeks left before a choice will be made, no clear successor has emerged to the current president, Romano Prodi.

But Mr Cox, a 51-year-old former television presenter who is recognised as a good communicator, is hoping to become a compromise candidate in a race with no favourite. Suggestions that the UK, France and Germany might agree on a joint candidate have been dispelled by the reaction from national capitals to the names so far floated, including that of Chris Patten, the European Commissioner for external relations.

Mr Patten would have the support of the British Government. But Paris has already made it clear that it would oppose a candidate from the UK, which is outside the eurozone and Schengen, the EU's free travel zone.

Mr Patten's reluctance to speak French in public is also seen as a problem in Paris.

Jacques Chirac, the French President, would prefer the multilingual Liberal Belgian Prime Minister, Guy Verhofstadt, but he is seen in London as too integrationist and an "echo chamber for Chirac".

Similar objections are made to his counterpart from Luxembourg - one of the EU's smallest states - Jean-Claude Juncker, who comes from the centre-right. "What does it say about the EU if it picks the third Commission president from Luxembourg in 20 years?" one diplomat asked yesterday.

Meanwhile, M. Chirac has still not forgiven the Austrian premier and centre-right candidate for the presidency, Wolfgang Schüssel, for forming a coalition with his country's far-right Freedom Party.

Neither London nor Paris would veto Mr Cox, even if he is not the favoured candidate of either government. One key to the final choice will be the result of the European Parliament elections in June because, if the centre-right wins, it will demand that one of its candidates gets the job.

But the centre-left's prospects in the elections have been improving, potentially opening the door to a host of other contenders. These include Portugal's European Commissioner, Antonio Vitorino; Germany's Commissioner, Günther Verheughen; the former Greek premier, Costas Simitis; and the former Finnish prime minister, Paavo Lipponen.

Mr Cox's prospects of securing a job in Brussels are complicated by Ireland's internal domestic politics. Ironically, he has a better chance of becoming the European Commission president than being nominated to serve as a less senior commissioner.

That is because he does not come from the ruling Fianna Fail party, led by Bertie Ahern, who would normally be expected to give the post of commissioner to a party ally. But were Mr Cox to emerge as a credible compromise candidate, the Irish government would back him in order to win the top post.

In another twist, Mr Ahern could emerge as a "dark horse" candidate, though he has ruled himself out and his lack of skills in the French language would in any event be a disadvantage. "I would not be surprised if the person who is eventually chosen is someone who has not been mentioned," said one diplomat yesterday.

HOW THE CANDIDATES MEASURE UP

Chris Patten

Age 59. Married, three children. St Benedict's School, Ealing; Balliol College, Oxford. Conservative Party chairman 90-92, Governor of Hong Kong 92-97, European Commissioner for External Relations since 1999.

Friends say: One of the EU's political heavyweights.

Enemies say: Little stomach for Brussels in-fighting.

Pat Cox

Age 51. Married, six children. Ard Scoil Ris, Limerick; Trinity College, Dublin. Economics lecturer. Presenter, RTE TV, 1982-86. Elected as a Progressive Democrat MEP in 1989. President of the European Parliament since July 2002.

Friends say: Has brought focus to the European Parliament.

Enemies say: Likes the sound of his own voice.