Ahern's focus on personality and pockets pays off

Even before the votes are cast in today's Irish general election the campaign performance of the Fianna Fail party, which seems set for victory, is being held up as a model of its kind.

Under the leadership of the outgoing Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, the party is on the verge of securing an overall majority, the first time any party has done so since 1977.

Mr Ahern began the campaign comfortably ahead of the opposition and has maintained that lead throughout. He and his party strategists successfully kept attention focused on a double feel-good factor, stressing the buoyant economy and his own popularity.

The combined message, which came close to declaring that "you've never had it so good", left the opposition floundering. Ireland's recent prosperity and Mr Ahern's reassuring persona seem to have assured him of a second term in office.

This psychological projection was cunningly marketed by Fianna Fail, while the party's weaknesses were expertly dealt with. The party has a record of corruption, while the government was open to criticism on issues such as hospital waiting lists and crime.

But its damage-limitation strategy worked, and the various opposition parties failed to press home the attack on these issues, or to make an impact with claims that the economic good times are about to come to an unpleasant end.

Many voters were unimpressed by what were viewed as unwelcome predictions of doom and gloom, preferring instead the more cheerful Fianna Fail message. Faced with a lack of lift-off, the opposition changed tack during the campaign with what looked like increasing desperation.

As a result Fianna Fail retained the initiative, having more successfully defined and encouraged the overall sense that the country is doing well. The campaign's concentration on Mr Ahern, and his slogan of "A lot done, more to do" has also captured the mood.

While he seems on the brink of a famous victory, having clearly outdone the other mainstream parties, much of the threat to his overall majority comes from the widespread support for smaller groups and individuals.

The unprecedented prosperity, with its heavy emphasis on materialism, has not reached all parts of the electorate, and there is much political disenchantment among the young and within deprived inner-city ghettos. Consequently Sinn Fein, the Green party and independent candidates seem poised to do well, benefiting from protest votes and those who feel alienated from authority. While Sinn Fein is highly unlikely to play any part in the new government, the party's fortunes have proved fascinating to the media both in Ireland and abroad.

In Kerry North, the prospect of the convicted IRA gun-runner Martin Ferris taking a seat has attracted much interest, with journalists from all over the world flocking to the constituency. More than a hundred journalists and broadcasters have applied for passes to attend the count centre.