More popular abroad than in New Zealand but Jacinda Ardern is set for an emphatic general election victory

Polls, pundits and public opinion predict a sleepwalk to victory for New Zealand’s globally celebrated prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, in this weekend’s election.

After months of adoration on the back of her handling the coronavirus epidemic, the 40-year-old Labour Party leader has good reason to be confident.

Since August, she has averaged across five polls a 17-point lead on the rival National Party, which has had multiple leadership changes this year.

In the preferred prime minister stakes, Ms Ardern has 50 per cent support – 27 points ahead of National leader, Judith Collins, 61. Bookies make Labour heave odds-on favourites to win, at  1/33 compared to 16/1 for National.

Of the 3.43 million New Zealanders enrolled to vote, 1.53 million have already visited polling booths ahead of Saturday’s (NZT) election.

Ms Ardern, the mother to 15-month-old Neve Te Aroha, has run a campaign predominantly focused on her government successfully eliminating Covid-19 with the message hers is the party to “keep moving”.

There have been 25 deaths linked to the pandemic in New Zealand, 1,871 positive tests in total, but no currently active cases in the community. The country is effectively coronavirus free after more than two weeks of no positive tests outside of managed isolation facilities.

The election itself, originally scheduled for September, has been delayed because of the pandemic but an Auckland-based political scientist told The Independent Ms Ardern’s handling of Covid-19 will be responsible for her party’s success if it wins.

“She has a pretty clear run to victory at the moment, it has been a rather dull and boring election,” said Dr Lara Greaves from the University of Auckland.

“When there’s a crisis, people tend to either swing to the right and get a bit prejudiced or they cling to the current establishment. In New Zealand, with Covid, we have seen people cling to Ardern.”

Even with promising polling, Ms Ardern has been cautious to not declare herself a winner. “I never have, never will. Anyone who knows me knows I’m as far away from self-congratulatory as you can probably get,” she said.

Dr Greaves said statements like these were straight out of the political playbook.

“Most politicians kind of have to say that and talk about how the only poll that matters is the one on the day. They have to follow social norms,” he said.

Managing Covid-19 is not the only legacy Ms Ardern has to draw on.

She was lauded the world over for an empathetic response to March 2019’s terrorist attack which saw 51 people die and 40 others injured at a Christchurch mosque which the gunman streamed using Facebook.

In her first term, Ms Ardern has enjoyed Vogue front-cover status, a televised visit to her home by The Late Show host Stephen Colbert and endorsements from Oprah Winfrey and Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex.

But despite Ms Ardern being mobbed in shopping centres throughout this campaign by those wanting selfies, her celebrity overseas is probably greater than domestically.

Dr Greaves said former prime minister John Key achieved similar opinion polling as Ms Ardern, but not as much international exposure.

“She is a lot more popular abroad than she is in New Zealand and that is not a bad thing.

“Us Kiwis like our prime ministers to be able to hold their own and make waves on the world stage, and they have. But with this one, it is next-level total ‘Jacinda Mania’.”

National has campaigned on “the Jacinda effect, appearance but no substance”.

It said Ms Ardern lacked business acumen, reminding voters that she worked in a rural takeaway shop and went on to study communications and media before entering politics.

In July Ms Collins became the third person to lead National since May.

Her predecessor, Todd Muller, staged a coup against Simon Bridges but lasted only 53 days when he spectacularly quit, amid a mental breakdown caused by crippling scrutiny of instances such as displaying Donald Trump memorabilia in his parliamentary office.

But National’s expected loss will be down to much more than trivia.

National has consistently underestimated Ms Ardern, according to John Banks, who has been a member of the party since 1972 and served under seven prime ministers.

“The party has never quite appreciated the extraordinary ability of Jacinda Ardern to connect with the voters through the conduit of palpable empathy,” Mr Banks told The Independent.

“It has lurched from one kneejerk reaction to the next and kept changing leaders thinking it would make a difference. But it was never going to.”

The former police minister said New Zealand had globally recognisable prime ministers in David Lange and John Key, but never anything like Ms Ardern, who was first elected prime minister in October 2017.

“There has never in this country’s history been a prime minister more personable than the incumbent. She was always on track for a second term.”

Labour has campaigned on free dental for beneficiaries, lunches for underprivileged children, gender-neutral bathrooms in schools, more social housing, investment in New Zealand’s provinces, free university fees and trade deals with the UK and EU.

Meanwhile, National has pointed to 70,000 people losing their jobs since March and projections that 100,000 more will do so over the next two years. It has promised substantial road improvements and “responsible economic management” to support businesses recover from Covid-19. Tax cuts for middle-income earners will provide much-needed stimulus, Ms Collins said.

This weekend voters will not only select a government but decide across two referenda if the recreational use of cannabis should become legal and whether individuals living with a terminal illness should be able to request assisted dying.

Ms Ardern has repeatedly refused to state her position on the cannabis referendum.

“I was once a Mormon and then I wasn’t, that’s how I’ll put that,” she said.

During a recent televised debate with Ms Collins, the prime minister finally admitted smoking the substance “a long time ago”.

Ms Collins, who strongly opposes the “reeferendum”, capitalised on her opponent not coming clean.

She had “absolutely been offered” a joint in the past but refused to smoke it.

“I was very focused on being a lawyer... I don’t do everything I’m asked to do,” she said.

“I don’t worry about what [Ms Ardern] does in her private life... but I don’t know why it took her so long to admit it.”