Nuclear foes prepared to shoulder cost of antipathy

With a standing army of 1,100,000 and a defence budget of nearly £9.6bn, India by far outweighs Pakistan in conventional terms.

Pakistan's standing army of 550,000, and its defence spending of £2.3bn means that, militarily, it is dwarfed by its neighbour. While Pakistan cannot match India's conventional dominance, it has built up a nuclear arsenal, giving it a credible deterrent to any threat.

The central plank of Pakistan's policy is to have sufficient forces in Kashmir to inflict heavy casualties on an attacker, while relying on its nuclear capability to deter an attack in the first place.

And although Pakistan is finding the cost of maintaining its strategic standing force difficult to bear, it has gained a wild card since 11 September.

There are an estimated 3,000 American troops hunting fleeing al-Qa'ida and Taliban in Pakistan – testament to General Pervez Musharraf's co-operation in President George Bush's war on terror.

If India were to launch a raid across the line of control, any reply from Pakistan could put Delhi in a difficult position. Although most US troops are believed to be near the northern border with Afghanistan, India would not want to run the risk of hitting US military assets.

India sees itself as a rising regional player and has enjoyed improved relations with the US since the Bush administration took office in January 2001 – not least because it hopes this relationship may lead to financial assistance in modernising its armed forces. The Kashmir conflict is a drain on India's resources, holding back its modernisation plans.

The commitment to a standing force of some 300,000 police and military in Kashmir is a heavy burden. But India has shown no sign of scaling down activity in the region. Five warships were yesterday sent to the Arabian Sea as India intensified cross-border artillery fire.