Nepal earthquake: Kingdom will be devastated by loss of foreign revenue

Once again, the vulnerability of humanity to the deadly power of the restless earth has been exposed. And once again, a natural disaster has revealed the precarious dependence of the developing world upon that most fickle of industries: tourism.

The body count in Nepal is the cruellest element of the aggregation of tragedy that the earthquake has triggered. But the aftershocks that are already rumbling through the economy spell more misery for the survivors.

One Kathmandu travel agent who on Friday had about 1,000 forward bookings reported that, by yesterday, 90 per cent of tourists had called to cancel. Sadly, like the death toll, that figure is certain to rise in the next few days. In the short term, tourism to Nepal will be like much of the infrastructure: devastated.

The inbound passenger profile at Tribhuvan airport over the next few weeks will comprise disaster relief workers and journalists, while outbound planes will carry away tourists who have managed to extricate themselves from a nation in turmoil.

Foreign travel firms are urgently trying to get their customers home from a region now deep into a humanitarian disaster, and with flimsy post-quake infrastructure. As one British tour operator, Exodus, seeks to evacuate its clients from Kathmandu, it is keeping customers under canvas rather than take a chance with the structural stability of hotels in the capital.

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So far, so bad. And in the next few months life will get worse for the many Nepalese people who depend for a living on tourism. Travel firms have cancelled all departures to Nepal in the near future, and will return only when they are convinced they can operate safely once more.

Absolute safety is impossible to guarantee at the best of times in Nepal. The kingdom has suffered a string of domestic airline crashes, many involving foreign tourists. The political instability is evident in the way that groups of trekkers are, from time to time, held up by Maoist guerrillas – by most accounts a courteous bunch – who extract protection money in a bizarre form of tourism tax.

And a year ago, the profound risks of Himalayan adventures were brought home with the deaths of 16 Sherpas as they prepared Everest’s South Col route for summit attempts.

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Despite the loss of life in avalanches triggered by the earthquake at and around Base Camp, Everest will remain a compelling draw for the mountaineering community. Next season, climbers will once again each pump thousands of dollars into the economy. The vast majority of the 40,000 British visitors who hitherto visited the kingdom each year had less-ambitious objectives: trekking on recognised circuits or encountering wildlife in the lowlands. Almost everyone spent time visiting the vibrant and surprisingly elegant capital. With much of the heart of Kathmandu reduced to rubble, the natural response from British travellers will be to stay away. But even more imperative than contributing towards the relief efforts is for tourists to return as soon as they reasonably can.