Lack of special forces may hinder ground war

The allies "new kind of war" in Afghanistan is facing the old kind of problems. The number of special forces available is nothing like enough to carry out a prolonged campaign and there is apparently little fresh intelligence on the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden.

Allied air attacks continued last night, with around 80 targets hit in more than a week of bombing. British aircraft had flown 33 sorties, in reconnaissance and support capacity, according to the MoD.

The strikes have failed to make the Taliban leadership "recant" over their decision not to hand over Mr bin Laden, one of the hopes of Washington.

According to defence sources, the Pentagon may authorise a commando operation on the ground in the near future -- mainly to prove that they can in the face of accusations of drift.

But plans for an undercover war are being hampered by the fact that, at present, there are only around 1,000 special forces personnel available and the numbers are unlikely to rise significantly unless other areas of deployment are denuded.

In practice, this means the coming conflict is likely to be a much more conventional one, the regular combat troops alongside the US Delta Force and Britain's SAS regiment.

But it is the lack of information about Mr bin Laden, his chief lieutenants, and the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, which is causing most concern.

The MoD revealed yesterday that many of the 150 reservists they are calling up speak either Arabic, or Pashtu, the main Afghan language. They will work in defence intelligence, analysing messages the Taliban and al-Qa'ida pass between each other, as well as analysing surveillance films and photos.

According to defence sources, whereas the Taliban are often careless with their communications, al-Qa'ida maintains strict discipline. Mr bin Laden is said to be keen to avoid the fate of the Chechen leader, Dzokhar Dudayev, who was killed, allegedly, by a Russian missile tracking signals sent by his mobile telephone.

Security sources say that the Allies have not been given information on Mr bin Laden and the al-Qa'ida leadership expected from Pakistan's military Inter Services Intelligence.

The ISI, which helped create the Taliban and had maintained close contact with al-Qa'ida, has apparently told sceptical US officials they simply do not know where Mr bin Laden and his senior associates are.

Any early US commando operation is likely to be against the so-called 55th Brigade, made up of Islamist fighters from a range of soldiers from Pakistan, Chechnya, Algeria and Somalia.The brigade, said to be 3,000-strong, is thought to be positioned around Kabul as the last line of defence.

Beyond commando raids, larger scale ground operations now look inevitable not just for military but humanitarian reasons. The aid agencies will not be able to provide food, shelter and medicine needed for 7.5 million civilians in danger.

Military operations will, however, be badly hampered both by the snow and ice, due to arrive in the middle of November, as well as Ramadan, the holy month of fasting and sacrifice.