China's hard man Jiang postpones his retirement plans

China's leader, Jiang Zemin, is manoeuvring to keep his grip on power for another five years when the Communist Party holds its 16th congress in the autumn, despite having promised to retire as part of a major generational shift.

Mr Jiang, who is China's head of state and commander-in-chief as well as general secretary of the Communist Party, took power after the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, and has kept his predecessor, Zhao Ziyang, under house arrest since then.

This month the party's inner circle is gathering for a final round of negotiations at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, several hours east of Beijing. Half the country's ministers and provincial leaders are to be replaced by younger men when the five-yearly congress convenes in September or October. The new Politburo line-up had seemed fixed at the start of the year, but word is spreading that President Jiang is having second thoughts, to the fury of some factions in the party.

"He is encouraging his supporters to write letters appealing for him to continue for the sake of political stability. He seems to be going through the motions in a show of false reluctance," said one Chinese academic. An Asian diplomat added: "Some party elders have also been writing petitions and letters protesting at the change in plan."

Although 76, Mr Jiang appears still to be in fine health. He regularly sings and dances at state banquets, and apparently remains keen to continue travelling the globe as a world statesman. Last week he secured an invitation to President George Bush's Texas ranch in October, which he has long sought to demonstrate his success in fully restoring China's influence with the US.

According to some, he could be inclined to stay on for life. "He feels he still wants to leave his mark on history," a Chinese academic said.

President Jiang had previously promised to retire in favour of Hu Jintao, 59, a colourless engineer who is Vice-President. Mr Hu was supposed to take over as head of the party in October, and as head of state next March.

As part of the original deal, Li Peng, who now runs China's parliament, the National People's Congress, would have retired to be replaced by the more liberal Li Ruihuan. Li Peng is the conservative leader most closely associated with the decision to send in the tanks 13 years ago. But as long as Mr Jiang does not retire, Li Peng is unlikely to give up his positions, making it impossible for China to embark on any substantive political reforms.

The party meeting is due to enshrine Mr Jiang's philosophy of the "Three Represents", a move that will weaken the Communist Party's claim to be the advance guard of the ruling proletariat. But many party members are bitterly opposed to allowing entrepreneurs to join the party.

The Premier, Zhu Rongji, who successfully steered China into the World Trade Organisation, still looks likely to leave, despite having served only one term, and will be replaced by the low-key Vice-Premier, Wen Jiabao. But the composition of the seven-man Politburo standing committee is now in doubt.

Some sources say that Mr Jiang has finally persuaded his colleagues to elevate his right-hand man, Zeng Qinghong. But Mr Zeng is deeply unpopular among some party factions.