Winners and losers after Democrats pass their massive climate and healthcare legislation

After a marathon series of votes and more than a year of planning and negotiation, Senate Democrats on Sunday passed the Inflation Reduction Act – their signature piece of legislation that would both tackle climate change and work to lower prescription drug costs.

All 50 Democrats and vice president Kamala Harris voted to pass the bill after the marathon series of votes on amendments known as a “vote-a-rama.” The bill now heads to the House of Representatives, where it will likely face a swift passage later this week.

If signed, it will be the largest investment in combating climate change in US history.

While it still faces a vote in the House, passing it through the Senate was always going to be tougher given the fact that Democrats only have 50 senators and conservative Democratic senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona had serious objections to various parts of the proposed legislation.

With this in mind, here are four big winners and two big losers after this weekend’s vote.

Winner: President Joe Biden

The passage of the legislation is an unequivocal victory for Mr Biden, especially as he has made combating climate change a key part of both his domestic and international agenda. The vote comes as Mr Biden has had a series of bipartisan accomplishments, such as passing an infrastructure bill, a gun law and legislation to support the manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States. But all of those were bipartisan and not part of the bold agenda Mr Biden promised he would pass when media reports said he would be the next Franklin Roosevelt. By passing this legislation, he shows he is serious about dealing both with climate change and lowering prescription drug prices. Mr Biden’s approval rating has tumbled prodigiously in the past year and while this is not a guarantee his numbers will improve, it does make a legitimate case that he has a record of accomplishments: some show he can close deals with Republicans and others show he knows when to eschew bipartisanship.

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Loser: Senator Bernie Sanders

Democratic Senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock’s runoff victories in Georgia in 2021 made the Vermont Independent and former presidential candidate chairman of the Senate Budget Committee. Initially, Mr Sanders hoped to pass a $6tn programme through budget reconciliation – which allows legislation to pass through a simple majority as long as it relates to the budget. But the legislation was eventually negotiated down to $3.5tn before going down again to $1.75tn before Mr Manchin pulled out of negotiations in December. Eventually, Mr Sanders was frozen out as negotiations resumed directly between Mr Schumer and Mr Manchin. In turn, the self-identified democratic socialist wound up trying to propose amendments on the floor during the vote-a-rama, but almost all Democrats rejected them because they wanted to ensure it did not alter the deal and alienate one of the other members. Similarly, when Mr Sanders said in a floor speech “it will, in fact, have a minimal impact on inflation,” Republicans repeated his talking points. Sanders began this process as one of the most influential Senators to one stripped of almost all influence.

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Winner: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer

Throughout much of Mr Schumer’s tenure as Senate minority leader, he was often compared to either his Republican counterpart Mitch McConnell, a man known for his utter ruthlessness in his wielding of power without regard for public opinion, or Democratic House speaker Nancy Pelosi, often considered the best vote-counter in Washington. Similarly, since taking over, Mr Schumer has had a series of purely performative votes that could not overcome a Republican filibuster and could not convince Mr Manchin and Ms Sinema to change their opinion on the 60-vote threshold. But with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, Mr Schumer can make the case that he can coalesce a coalition as diverse as Bernie Sanders and Joe Manchin. Furthermore, save for a few occasional defections, the Democratic caucus held the line to ensure that Republicans didn’t include any poison pills. One of the examples of Republicans getting too confident comes from…

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Loser: Senate Minority Whip John Thune

The Republican whip is often seen as a potential successor to Mr McConnell. Similarly, he also enjoys a warm relationship with Kyrsten Sinema. However, toward the end of the “vote-a-rama,” Mr Thune pulled a truly audacious stunt where he tried to create an exemption to Democrats’ proposed 15 per cent corporate minimum tax for private equity subsidiaries and hoped to pay for it by continuing a cap on state and local taxes the Trump tax cuts imposed, according to Business Insider. Mr Thune hoped to tempt Ms Sinema with the amendment, which would have repelled House Democrats from New York and New Jersey who oppose the cap. Ultimately, Ms Sinema, as well as six other Democrats voted for the amendment. But Democrats substituted it with an amendment from Senator Mark Warner. Mr Thune’s attempt to make Ms Sinema vote for a poison pill that could kill the whole bill turned out not to consider how Democrats would counter and shows he does not yet have the wiles that the man nicknamed “Cocaine Mitch” possesses.

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Winner: Senator Joe Manchin

The West Virginia Democrats’ name might as well have become profanity after he killed Build Back Better, their initial proposed social spending legislation, last year. Many may still find him endlessly frustrating. But with his deal with Mr Schumer, he showed that he could get to “yes” and that he was willing to be a team player, even voting against all proposed Republican amendments during the “vote-a-rama.” While many Democrats may dislike that legislation is significantly smaller in its price tag than Build Back Better, it shows that he can be negotiated with and can be a willing partner under the right circumstances. Weirdly, Mr Sanders’s objections likely helped Mr Manchin sell the bill because it meant he could create some daylight between Mr Sanders and himself as a moderate. He even toldThe Independent, “This is not Bernie’s bill.”

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Loser: Senator Kyrsten Sinema

While Mr Manchin has often been open about his reservations about legislation – even at times contradicting himself about various aspects of what eventually became the Inflation Reduction Act–Ms Sinema frequently left her colleagues in the dark. Ms Sinema often refuses to speak to the press, preferring to speak directly to negotiators. But she sent much of the Democratic conference into a frenzy when she expressed openness to Mr Thune’s amendment. Similarly, progressive Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego – who has said he is interested in staging a primary challenge against her in 2024–made noise about her decision to stick up for what he considered a tax break for private equity firms. That forced Democrats such as Mr Schumer, Mr Warner and Senator Elizabeth Warren into overtime. At one point, Ms Sinema seemed to be focused more on her phone than her colleagues. By the end of the vote, however, it seemed all was forgiven as she hugged many of her Democratic colleagues. But it is entirely likely that she breached their trust and opened herself to a primary challenge.

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