Supreme Court nomination fails to boost Trump support in Pennsylvania as Biden leads battleground state

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the contested battleground of Pennsylvania, buoyed by strong support in the Philadelphia suburbs and his competitiveness in the state's western counties that were a Trump stronghold in 2016, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Mr Biden's support stands at 54 per cent to Mr Trump's 45 per cent among the Keystone State's likely voters and 54 per cent to 44 per cent among its registered voters. Mr Biden's current edge among likely voters appears sizeable but is not definitive, given the five-point margin of error that applies to each candidate's support. Other polls of Pennsylvania this month have found Mr Biden leading Mr Trump by an average of eight points.

With five weeks until Election Day, the poll finds that 53 per cent of Pennsylvania's registered voters approve of Mr Trump's management of the economy, but 57 per cent disapprove of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, and that issue appears to sway more voters than does the economy. Mr Trump's overall approval rating in the state among registered voters is 43 per cent positive and 55 per cent negative, with 49 per cent saying they disapprove “strongly”.

Pennsylvania is the most populous of three Rust Belt states that proved decisive in the 2016 election. Mr Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania as well as Wisconsin and Michigan by less than one percentage point each. All three states had voted for Democratic presidential nominees in the previous six elections before shifting to Mr Trump.

Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes make it the most valuable of the three, and the Trump and Biden campaigns have focused their resources accordingly in an effort to tip the state in their candidate's direction. The candidates, too, have repeatedly campaigned in person in the state, which was home to Mr Biden's headquarters before the pandemic forced it closed.

The Post-ABC poll suggests Mr Biden is challenging Mr Trump for support among key groups and areas that drove the president's 2016 win, including white voters without four-year college degrees, who account for about half of Pennsylvania's electorate. In recent weeks, Mr Biden has pressed the notion that as a Scranton native he has more affinity for blue collar voters than Mr Trump, who was born and raised in wealthy circumstances in New York. Mr Trump has countered that he is their biggest defender.

Mr Trump leads Mr Biden by 17 points among this group in the poll, though Mr Trump won them by more than 30 points both nationally and in Pennsylvania four years ago. Mr Biden also boasts a 23-point lead among white college graduates and a 64-point lead among non-white voters, similar to or larger than Ms Clinton's advantages with these two groups of voters four years ago.

Mr Trump's support in western Pennsylvania also appears weaker than in 2016. Excluding Democratic-leaning Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, Mr Trump has 50 per cent support to Biden's 47 per cent among registered voters in western counties of the state. In 2016, Mr Trump won these counties by 29 points. In 2012, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won that region by 16 points on his way to losing the state to Barack Obama.

Mr Trump has sizeable leads in central Pennsylvania, where he won decisively in 2016, and has a smaller edge in northeastern Pennsylvania. In the central part of the state, his lead is nearly 30 points, the same as it was in 2016, while in northeastern Pennsylvania, the president receives 56p per cent support, comparable to four years ago. The Trump campaign has made it a priority to turn out even more voters in these areas than in 2016.

Mr Biden is strongest in southeastern Pennsylvania. The Post-ABC poll finds the former vice president leading Mr Trump by more than 2 to 1 in the Philadelphia area, including its populous suburbs of Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties. Ms Clinton won these counties together by a 14-point margin in 2016, and they have grown more Democratic.

Statewide, women voters also are core to Mr Biden's support, favouring him by 23 points, while Mr Trump holds a narrow seven-point edge among men.

Whatever his current deficit, Mr Trump has a path to holding the state in November if he can replicate what happened four years ago. A month before the 2016 election, several Pennsylvania polls showed Mr Trump trailing by double digits. Ms Clinton's lead deteriorated in the final two weeks of that campaign, a time in which her campaign was buffeted by renewed questions about her private email system. Exit polls show that Mr Trump won late-deciding voters by double digits and carried the state by about 45,000 votes, or seven-tenths of a per cent.

Mr Trump maintains an advantage on enthusiasm, with 71 per cent of registered voters who support him saying they are “very enthusiastic” about doing so, compared with 51 per cent of Biden supporters. A big enthusiasm gap exists between younger and older Biden supporters. Among those aged 65 and older, 79 per cent say they are very enthusiastic about their support. That compares with 27 per cent among voters under the age of 50. Still, 91 per cent of Biden supporters under the age of 50 rule out voting for Mr Trump.

Few voters who cast ballots for Mr Trump or Ms Clinton in 2016 are ready to defect, but among those who are there is a slight advantage for Mr Biden. The poll finds that 92 per cent of likely voters who supported Mr Trump four years ago currently support him, but that 8 per cent of them currently support Mr Biden. By contrast, 98 per cent of Clinton voters say they support Mr Biden, with 1 per cent switching to Trump.

One-quarter of Pennsylvania's registered voters cite the economy as the most important issue in their vote choice - more than any other issue. The coronavirus outbreak is second at 18 per cent, with a trio of issues - crime and safety, equal treatment of racial groups and healthcare - grouped closely behind. Ranking lowest is “the next appointment to the US Supreme Court”, with 9 per cent saying it is their top issue.

Mr Trump and Mr Biden supporters view the issues through competing lenses. Among Trump voters, the economy is by far the most important issue, cited by 47 per cent. Crime and safety is next at 22 per cent. Just 3 per cent highlight the coronavirus outbreak. Among Biden supporters, the pandemic is the top issue, cited by 30 per cent, followed by equal treatment of racial groups at 21 per cent and healthcare at 19 per cent.

About six in 10 Pennsylvanian likely voters rate the national economy as not so good or poor, and they split 85 per cent to 15 per cent for Mr Biden. The roughly four in 10 who say the economy is good or excellent prefer Mr Trump by a comparable margin, 86 per cent to 14 per cent. Although the president has net positive ratings on his handling of the economy, he has no advantage over Mr Biden on the question of who Pennsylvania voters trust to handle the issue going forward. Similarly, views of the coronavirus form a dividing line between the candidates. More than six in 10 likely voters in Pennsylvania say they are worried that someone in their immediate family might catch the coronavirus while about a third are not worried - and 3 per cent say they or a family member has already caught the virus.

Those worried about the coronavirus support Mr Biden, 75 per cent to 24 per cent, while those who are not worried support Mr Trump by a wider 82 per cent to 16 per cent. In addition to the overall disapproval of the president for his handling of the pandemic, Mr Biden is more trusted to deal with the issue, by 54 per cent to 40 per cent among registered voters.

The poll finds that 54 per cent of registered voters support recent protests against police treatment of black people, yet voters give differing responses when asked which candidate can better handle aspects of the issue. Mr Biden is trusted by a 20-point margin to handle “equal treatment of racial groups”, but registered voters are roughly divided on which candidate can better handle “crime and safety”, with 50 per cent choosing Mr Biden and 47 per cent choosing Mr Trump.

On other issues, Mr Biden has a narrow advantage on handling a Supreme Court nomination and also leads when it comes to healthcare and equal treatment of racial groups. The president does not have a significant advantage on any issue.

The survey was mostly completed before the president on Saturday nominated federal appeals court Judge Amy Coney Barrett to fill the vacancy created by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. But a 53 per cent majority of Pennsylvania voters say they would prefer that the winner of the election nominate someone to succeed Ginsburg rather than Mr Trump selecting someone and the Senate going ahead with confirmation proceedings before the outcome of the election is clear. The proceedings are expected to conclude before Election Day.

Similar to national public opinion, more Pennsylvania voters who support Mr Biden say it is “more important” for their candidate to win because of the court vacancy than Trump supporters say about their candidate, 61 per cent to 41 per cent.

Most Pennsylvania voters (65 per cent) say they will cast their ballots on Election Day while slightly more than three in 10 plan to vote early, either by mail or in person at an early voting site. Four years ago, 4 per cent of voters in the state cast absentee ballots, but at the time, the state required voters to have an excuse to do so. This year, any Pennsylvania voter can request a mail-in ballot.

This Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone between 15-20 September 2020 among a random sample of 808 adults, including 702 registered voters and 567 likely voters in Pennsylvania, with 63 per cent of interviews completed on mobile phones and the remainder on landlines. The margin of sampling error for results among registered voters is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, and the error margin is five points among likely voters.

The Washington Post