Why Trump will likely never see the inside of a prison cell — or be sentenced at all

In theory, the next President of the United States is supposed to face sentencing for his New York criminal trial conviction at the end of the month.

But following his election win this week it is looking increasingly likely that won’t happen and Donald Trump will once again evade repercussions for his actions.

More than five months ago, a New York jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records stemming from hush-money payments he gave to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election.

Justice Juan Merchan, the judge who presided over the so-called hush money trial, scheduled the former president’s sentencing date for November 26. But it’s unclear if that sentencing will even occur.

Justice Merchan has until November 12 to decide if the case should be thrown out entirely based on the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling over the summer that awarded presidents new protections from criminal prosecution. 

But even if Justice Merchan does proceed, there is virtually no chance Trump will go to jail as the president-elect, legal experts say.

“It is hard to imagine a judge even considering, at that point, jail time,” ABC News Chief Legal Analyst Dan Abrams said. 

CNN’s Chief Legal Correspondent Paula Reid said Trump’s legal team would likely argue the president-elect is entitled to the same protections as the sitting president and therefore should be protected from state prosecutions.

Though Trump was convicted of a felony in New York, it is a low-level offense and as a non-violent first-time offender (and former president) he was always more likely to face fines or other penalties over imprisonment. 

Given his upgraded status to the president-elect, he probably won’t face sentencing.

In the off-chance Justice Merchan proceeds with sentencing, he could defer any sentence to 2029 when Trump would leave office. But at that point, the former president would be 82 years old his legal team could argue sentencing interferes with the peaceful transition of power, according to Politico.

The hush money case is the only criminal case Trump has stood trial and been convicted in. It will likely be the only criminal case the former president sees given he will be headed to the White House shortly.

“Jack Smiths’ going to get fired, done, those prosecutions are over,” Abrams told ABC News, referring to Trump’s two federal criminal cases.

Smith, the Special Counsel tapped by Attorney General Merrick Garland to investigate Trump, is reportedly looking to “wind down” his cases against Trump, before he arrives at the White House, given they’ve hit an impasse.

Since he was first indicted in New York last spring, Trump has utilized every method to delay or dismiss the various criminal cases against him in the hopes of winning re-election and avoiding legal ramifications.

On November 5, the American people handed Trump his wish by electing him the next President of the United States.