Top election predictor moves three battleground states out of the Trump column into ‘toss ups’

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Andrew Feinberg

White House Correspondent

Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, no longer look like they will be wins for the Trump campaign in 2024, according to election forecasters at the Cook Political Report, which moved the states from leaning Republican to “toss-ups.”

“Three weeks ago, Donald Trump was leading President Joe Biden in the Cook Political Report national vote tracker by about 2.5%,” editor-in-chief Amy Walter wrote on Thursday. “Today, Kamala Harris leads Trump by less than one point, a shift of more than three points in Harris’ direction. Battleground state polls are showing similar results, with Harris cutting into Trump’s lead by anywhere from two to five points.”

The site also found that the projected election results were within the margin of error in the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

If the Harris-Walz campaign were able to win the states, it would build on the unlikely success of the Biden campaign, which flipped Arizona and Georgia in 2020.

Other election monitors have shown similar results in recent days.

The RealClearPolitics poll average has Harris over Trump by less than one percent, while the 538 poll aggregate has Harris leading by more than two percent.

On Thursday, Donald Trump held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, seen as an attempt to recapture some of the spotlight from a surging Democratic side that’s seemed to have all the attention since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the ticket.

At the event, Trump mostly rambled and made false claims, but disclosed he had agreed to debate Kamala Harris.