Which Trump Cabinet picks will actually get confirmed — and who will work across the aisle?

Donald Trump is nearly done with his slate of initial Cabinet nominees as his incoming White House and broader administration begin to take shape.

And while a few notables are making headlines and could face real opposition to their respective confirmations, more are expected to sail smoothly through the Republican-controlled Senate.

Most reflect one of two schools of the Republican Party, now both totally subservient to Trump. Some are MAGA diehards, like Matt Gaetz and Kristi Noem. Others are more aligned with the party’s center, like Marco Rubio. Figures who fall into both camps may find opportunities for common ground with Democrats over the next four years — a valuable prospect if the opposition party is able to win control of one or both chambers of Congress in the future.

A number of Cabinet positions remain outstanding: Trump has yet to name his picks for Agriculture, HUD, Treasury and Labor. But his choices for the most prominent positions are now all named, and some are much more bipartisan — or more antagonistic — than a layperson might expect.

Easily the ex-president’s most controversial pick, Gaetz is already facing the most skepticism from both sides of the aisle. That’s an ironic moment of bipartisanship for Congress, particularly in the House, where a number of Republicans who have made an enemy of Gaetz over the years have come out denouncing his nomination to the post.

Should his confirmation go through, it’s more unlikely than not that Gaetz will pick a fight with the left. It’s very possible that he’ll be under direct pressure from Trump himself to launch politicized prosecutions against the president-elect’s rivals and enemies.

Progressives could find some common ground with an Attorney General Gaetz if he continues a streak of anti-monopoly action the Biden administration began. But that precludes the idea that they’ll be able to get over the stench of the allegations of sexual misconduct made against him, which he denies.

Gaetz is the least likely of all of Trump’s picks to actually get through a confirmation process.

Hegseth is likely to be one of the biggest targets of liberal and progressive outrage over the next few years, assuming his confirmation to the post survives a sexual assault allegation (which he denies).

The incoming Defense chief is likely to be the chief instigator of a culture war within the US armed services, and will also be the part of the face of any US rollback of support for Ukraine. Neither prospect thrills Democrats, though they can do little to stop them.

After Gaetz, Hegseth is the most likely to face troubles during confirmation — but on balance, it still seems more likely that he will be confirmed than that he won’t.

Gabbard’s political evolution from a progressive-ish Democratic congresswoman to Republican MAGA hero has landed her a role as director of National Intelligence, pending Senate approval.

She has few friends in the Senate, especially on the Democratic side, but her largely scandal-free (by comparison) background and strong support from Trump are likely to smooth her confirmation process. If confirmed, Gabbard will likely play somewhat of a background role in the administration, and on policy issues she’ll likely align 100% with her boss. Don’t expect a reunion between her and Bernie Sanders, whom she once endorsed for president, any time over the next four years.

Having been passed over (despite his own lobbying — and Elon Musk’s support) for Treasury secretary, Trump’s transition team chair is now his nominee to lead the Department of Commerce.

In this role, Lutnick is likely to find friends in the Democratic House and Senate caucuses. Maine’s Jared Golden, for instance, who in October proposed a 10% tariff on all imports — mirroring some of Trump’s own widely varying suggestions of various tariff rates on the campaign trail.

Even centrist Democrats like Jon Tester were opposed to the trade war sparked by Trump during his first term, however, so don’t expect the bipartisan friends list to be too long.

We’re likely to see Lutnick confirmed.

Rubio’s term at the State Department and his reputation as secretary (assuming he’s confirmed — which again is likely) will largely be determined by world events begun before his job begins, including the ongoing war in the Middle East as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Florida senator is not likely to embrace any of his boss’s rhetoric about NATO beyond supporting other countries to raise contribution levels. If the president makes the call to cut off aid to Ukraine, Rubio will be a part of that decision and will win no allies among the Democrats.

His fervent support for Israel in its assault against the Gaza Strip and Hamas is shared by a majority of the Washington foreign policy establishment, however, which is unlikely to change in the near future.

Robert F Kennedy Jr, as usual, is an odd one. Don’t forget: he was once floated as a Cabinet nominee by none other than Barack Obama after his 2008 election victory.

Obviously, Kennedy has undergone somewhat of a political mutation since then — and his position at HHS would put him in charge of a very different agency than the EPA, which Obama thought about letting him run. Nonetheless, it’s clear that Kennedy isn’t entirely despised by Democrats, for all the party’s talk about the very real dangers of the conspiracies he has openly embraced surrounding vaccines.

He could see some alliances form around a push to regulate hyper-processed foods, one issue he has supported on the campaign trail. His support for ending vaccine requirements in schools and elsewhere is another story.

Trump will have to expend some political capital in trying to get this nomination through, and it’s unclear if he’ll succeed.

Wright, should he be confirmed to lead the Department of Energy, is an obvious pick for a conservative Republican. He’s the CEO of a company that manages oilfields and natural gas extraction (fracking) facilities. In the role, he’ll be charged with boosting US fossil fuel production and the less glamorous oversight of the aging US nuclear weapons system.

As secretary, his push to ramp up oil and gas production will make him a target of green groups and progressives, though he likely won’t have too many powerful enemies in Congress.

Collins is a pick about which there’s little to predict thus far. A former congressman from Georgia, he has tweeted about cutting regulation and he commented about allowing veterans to see “their own doctor[s]” in a recent interview, so he’s likely to be your fairly bog-standard privatization supporter at the VA.

How much he leans into cutting federal services rather than simply expanding access is likely to determine how many enemies he makes along the way.

The other Doug nominated to join the second Trump administration, this one serves as governor of North Dakota. He’s likely to endorse expanding use of federal lands for oil and gas mining, as well as cattle grazing, all of which will set up battles with Democrats and left-leaning environmental groups — even potentially Native American tribal organizations.

A veteran of Trump’s first administration, McMahon landed a nomination for Education secretary after her bid to lead Commerce ended in failure. She previously led the Small Business Administration (SBA) without incident, and is likely to be a less controversial pick for her new Cabinet posting than was Betsy DeVos, Trump’s choice last time around.

Support for charter schools could be an area of common ground with some centrist Democrats, but any attempts by her agency to bow to the ultra-conservative Moms for Liberty crowd — a group whose co-founder was in the running to lead the department — would provoke an immediate backlash.

An ex-Fox Business personality (one of two Fox alumni picked by Trump for his second term), Duffy will likely be confirmed to lead another agency which often enjoys bipartisan relationships. Trump and the GOP aren’t expected to make any kind of push to roll back the infrastructure bill passed under Joe Biden’s presidency, and many of those projects are still getting underway. Duffy will probably work with Democrats as much as Republicans in many congressional districts where plans are already in place.

One point of contention could arise, however. Trump tweeted recently that Duffy will be involved in eliminating diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) training for air traffic controllers. Any move by the agency to wade into such issues is likely to provoke unhappy responses from the left.