Terrible news for Donald Trump – Barack Obama’s approval rating is surging

For the first time in two years, a majority of Americans approve of Barack Obama’s presidency.

In the past three months, as attention has turned to the battle to replace him, the percentage of Americans who approve of the President has risen from 44-45 per cent to 49-50 per cent.

And in just the past month approval for him has risen from 46-47 per cent. The black line below is Obama's approval rating; the red line is his disapproval rating.

The percentage points matter in American politics. Romney won 47 per cent of the vote in 2012. Obama won 51. (And Bush beat Kerry 51 to 48 in 2004.)

A two-point swing can be the difference between winning and losing, between living and dying.

In the week before the 2012 election Obama’s approval hovered at around 50 per cent, with disapproval at around 47 per cent – almost identical to the actual result.

Approval rating is a good barometer of electoral support. As one might expect it to be given that it’s almost certainly the most polled subject in the world.

Since Obama’s first inauguration, nearly 3,400 polls have been published by more than 100 different pollsters. That’s 39 per month, 9 per week, or more than one a day.

In March alone, 38 polls have been published in the past 29 days.

We can be reasonably certain Obama’s approval rating really is around 50 per cent.

After more than a year in which his approval rating was stuck in the mid-forties, and dipped to as low as 43 per cent, Obama appears to have won over the crucial 5 per cent or so of Americans who decide presidential elections.

In December 2013 Obama’s approval rating fell to a low of 40 per cent, superceding his previous low of 42 per cent October 2011.

A year later it had barely recovered, hovering around 42 per cent. Since then Obama has effectively won back more than 10 million voters (given 131 and 129 million voters voted in the past two US elections).

The number of ‘swing’ voters in US elections has dwindled in recent decades. Both parties are now relatively assured of the support of at least 40 per cent of the electorate, and by some estimates that figure is closer to 45.

That makes the small percentage of undecided voters critical. An extra 5 percentage points of approval bodes well for Hillary Clinton, who is effectively running for Obama’s third term.

It could also mean voters dislike Clinton (and/or Sanders) as much as they are being repulsed by the Republican race.

But it’s hard to argue that Clinton doesn’t benefit from the popularity of someone whose record she’ll run on, support she’ll have, and voters she wants to win.