Senior ex-intelligence official warns second Trump term could fatally destabilise US, new book says

The former number two official in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has offered a dire prediction about America’s future should Donald Trump or another like-minded Republican succeed in winning next year’s presidential election, according to a new book by a former Trump administration homeland security aide.

In Blowback, author Miles Taylor recounts an October 2020 conversation he had with Sue Gordon, a 25-year US intelligence community veteran who served as the Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence from 2017 to 2019, shortly after news broke that the FBI had disrupted a plot by Michigan-based right-wing extremists to kidnap Wolverine State governor Gretchen Whitmer.

According to a copy of the book obtained by The Independent ahead of its Tuesday release, Taylor recalls how the news of the kidnapping plot prompted him to telephone Ms Gordon, who he says spent “decades” at the CIA monitoring foreign governments for signs of instability, and ask the former deputy DNI how America’s “democratic stability” would be impacted by a second term in the White House for Mr Trump or a “Maga successor”.

Taylor said Ms Gordon’s reply came “in the language of a seasoned intelligence analyst” who speaks “based on data from sources in the field and the uncertainty level of information they don’t have”.

He added that she told him how she would “assess with ‘low confidence’ that the United States reaches its three hundredth birthday” — the projected 2076 tricentennial anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence from Great Britain — in “any recognisable form”.

“People don’t trust government institutions anymore or each other, and when the world gets tumultuous, they’re more open to authoritarianism,” she said.

Continuing, Taylor writes that Ms Gordon told him her reason for pessimism about the long-term viability of the US as a functioning democracy stems from the follow-on effects of four more years of Donald Trump — or someone acting with the same malevolence towards governmental institutions — atop the US executive branch.

He said she told him that she does not believe a “Next Trump” would successfully smash through “every democratic guardrail,” but would “stoke unprecedented division and set off a slow turn towards despotism” in the US by “attempting” to further erode democratic norms and bring nominally independent institutions under his or her thumb.

“That process can take decades to unfold. If history is any guide, though, it might come suddenly to a head, with the literal pull of a trigger — and the odds of that happening in the not-too-distant future are historically high,” he wrote.

Taylor, who was chief of staff at the Trump-era Department of Homeland Security for the first three years of Mr Trump’s administration but is better known as the formerly anonymous author of a New York Times op-ed about “resistance” to the then-president inside his own government, told The Independent in a phone interview that he fears a repeat of the January 6 attack on the Capitol — but worse — should Mr Trump lose next year’s presidential election.

Echoing Ms Gordon’s prediction of a long-term breakdown of the American democratic system, Taylor said the possibility of “low-level civil conflict” touched off by Mr Trump or another Republican is “higher now than it even was in that post election period in 2020”.

“The muscle memory for those extremist movements has now been solidified. The networks are closer. And ... since that time, many more people, otherwise kind of normal people in small town America, have really taken the stolen election lies, QAnon, and great replacement theory as gospel, and the polling shows that a majority of your everyday Republicans believe those lies,” he said. “Add to that the fact that the country is more armed now than at any point in its history ... it is a powder keg.”

Taylor added that his fears of violence go beyond a repeat of what happened in Washington nearly three years ago, pointing to the aborted plot against Ms Whitmer, the Michigan governor, as an example of what could be in store for the future. He told The Independent that he feels “the conditions are very ripe” in the US for “that sort of low-level conflict” in many parts of the country.

“This is not just a Washington, DC thing — I really think we could see something a good deal worse, and part of that could also happen if a Trump or a savvier successor is reelected. And that misuse of the justice system could foment that even more,” he said.