South Carolina and Nevada primaries are the latest test of Trump’s power

Tuesday’s primaries in South Carolina and Nevada mark another major test for former president Donald Trump after many of his endorsements in Georgia fell flat.

Last month, the former president faced perhaps his biggest defeat when Georgia Governor Brian Kemp – the focal point of much Mr Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen – defeated former Senator David Perdue. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger beat Representative Jody Hice.

Two Republican incumbents are in Mr Trump’s crosshairs in South Carolina. In South Carolina’s 1st district, Representative Nancy Mace faces a primary challenge from Katie Arrington.

This isn’t the first time Mr Trump has inserted himself into a primary in the district; in 2018, he endorsed Ms Arrington when she challenged incumbent Mark Sanford, a former governor who had held the seat in the 1990s. Ms Arrington beat Mr Sanford that year, but she would lose to Democrat Joe Cunningham. In 2020, Ms Mace, who previously worked on Mr Trump’s 2016 campaign, beat Mr Cunningham in a year that was surprisingly good for Republicans.

Then on the heels of the January 6 riot at the Capitol, Ms Mace lambasted Mr Trump.

“His entire legacy was wiped out yesterday”, she said at the time. While she did not vote to impeach the former president – she instead pushed for a censure – she was one of a handful of Republicans who voted to hold Steve Bannon in contempt of Congress. The Justice Department later indicted Mr Bannon.

Those tepid critiques proved enough for Mr Trump to turn against Ms Mace and he endorsed Katie Arrington against the incumbent freshman, calling her “not at all representative of the Republican Party to which she is very disloyal.” In response, Ms Mace posted a video of herself in front of Trump Tower in New York City that highlighted her work for the former president on his first campaign.

But Mr Trump mocked the gesture at a rally in Florence, South Carolina in March.

“She went to New York and stood in front of the magnificent Trump Tower – has anyone ever heard of Trump Tower – and did a commercial insinuating that I was endorsing her”, he told the audience. “She’s standing over in front of Trump Tower in New York. I’m saying ‘can you believe this?’ It was untruthful just like everything else she does.”

Conversely, Representative Tom Rice, who represents South Carolina’s 7th district, was one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Mr Trump for his role in the January 6 riot at the US Capitol. In response, Mr Trump has endorsed Russell Fry, a state legislator.

Mr Rice for his part has been unapologetic about his vote.

“If you want a Congressman who supports political violence in Ukraine or in the United States Capitol, who supports party over country, who supports a would-be tyrant over the Constitution, and who makes decisions based solely on re-election, then Russell Fry is your candidate”, he said in a statement to WBTW after Mr Trump’s rally in Florence. “If you want a Congressman who cowers to no man, who votes for what is right, even when it’s hard, and who has fought like hell for the Grand Strand and Pee Dee, then I hope to earn your vote.”

In response, many establishment Republican figures have gotten behind Mr Rice. Cowboy PAC, which is affiliated with Representative Liz Cheney, one of the other Republicans who voted to impeach Mr Trump, has directed money his way. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan also held a fundraiser for Mr Rice in Florence earlier this month.

“There are workhorses in Congress and there are show horses in Congress,” Mr Ryan said of Mr Rice. “Law gets written by workhorses. Differences are made by workhorses. Tom Rice is a workhorse. That to me is what matters, and so you want to support the people in Congress who actually do the work of solving people’s problems.”

But South Carolina is not the only state where Trump’s endorsement is being put to the test. Republicans hope to knock off Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, the only Latina Senator in the body’s history, in Nevada.

In response, Mr Trump endorsed former attorney general Adam Laxalt, a scion of one of Nevada’s most respected political families, as he is the grandson of Paul Laxalt, a popular former governor who held the seat the younger Laxalt now seeks. But Mr Laxalt faces a primary challenge from political neophyte Sam Brown, a veteran of Afghanistan who was wounded in an IED explosion. The state GOP has endorsed Mr Brown.

How well Republicans perform in the heavily Latino state which Mr Trump narrowly lost in both of his presidential runs will serve as a bellwether for how Republicans perform in the state and with Hispanic voters overall as the GOP continues to attract more people in the demographic.