Progressives have a win in Walz and a loss in Cori Bush, so what now?

For progressives, joy came in the morning to ease the sorrow that lasted for the night on Tuesday.

Left-wing Democrats and activists had lobbied hard to prevent Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro from becoming Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate, largely because of his views about Israel and Palestine. In addition, they had criticized his support for school vouchers and his support for crackdowns on pro-Palestine campus protests, including at the private University of Pennsylvania.

It looked like progressives got what they wanted on Tuesday when Vice President Kamala Harris selected Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota to be her running mate. In the past, Walz has called humanitarian conditions in Gaza amid Israel’s war with Hamas “intolerable”. That endeared him to some younger Democrats even if Walz, like many other Democrats and Harris herself, remains firmly supportive of Israel.

But only a few hours later, progressives got a punch in the gut when Representative Cori Bush, a member of the Squad, lost her primary in Missouri’s 1st district to Wesley Bell. This comes just months after progressives faced a bruising loss when Representative Jamaal Bowman of New York lost his primary, which left the Squad and its allies demoralized.

As was the case in Bowman’s race, Bush faced an onslaught of money, largely from the super PAC for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee called the United Democracy Project. Indeed the only primary this cycle more expensive than Missouri’s 1st — which included more than $9 million in money from UDP — was Bowman’s, which had more than $14 million in money from UDP.

In her concession speech, Bush compared the onslaught of outside money to the January 6 insurrection and said she would go after AIPAC.

“All they did was radicalize me, so now they need to be afraid,” she said. “AIPAC, I'm coming to tear your kingdom down.”

Like many other members of the Squad, Bush has called for a ceasefire ever since the October 7 attack by Hamas that led Israel to unleash a massive military campaign that has killed at least 39,000 people in Gaza. She, like many other progressive Democrats, boycotted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s joint address to Congress, saying that Congress “is actively celebrating the man at the forefront of that genocide."

But like with Bowman, most of the ads against Bush did not focus on her support for Palestinians. Rather, they focused on how she voted against the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Bush, Bowman and other members of the Squad voted against the bill because they feared it would kill the chances to pass Build Back Better, President Joe Biden’s proposed social spending bill that he hoped to pass on party lines.

Of course, Senator Joe Manchin, who would later announce his retirement and then quit the Democratic Party, would kill the legislation, proving the Squad right. But it gave groups like AIPAC a potent chit. It gave credence to the idea that the Squad was the “never-enough caucus,” as one moderate Democrat called them in 2021.

Bush faced another headwind when she admitted that she was under investigation by the Department of Justice, the House Ethics Committee and the Federal Election Commission for hiring her husband to provide security.

All of this bears similarities to Bowman’s downfall, which came not only because of his stance on Palestine or even his vote against the infrastructure bill, but his foolish pulling of a fire alarm.

That may be why some Democrats and even some Squad members who support a ceasefire have not faced political death. The day Bowman lost, fellow Squad member Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won re-election handily.

Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota is set to win re-election next week and, despite facing a congressional censure, Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan — the only Palestinian-American congresswoman — faced zero opposition on Tuesday evening when she won her primary.

Bush and Bowman’s downfall shows that despite the fact that much of the Democratic Party has soured on Israel’s government — indeed, Shapiro has criticized Netanyahu — it is still an important talking point for critics of those facing re-election.

So what’s behind the progressive victory with Walz? In that case, progressives decided that, rather than simply express dissatisfaction or seek to purely block Shapiro, they would work within the options given. In doing so, they picked a former moderate pro-gun Democrat who became a governor who passed more progressive priorities. They lobbied and wound up allying with moderates in the House and, ultimately, they got their man on the Harris ticket.

While the Bush loss will likely sting for a time to come, progressives will likely learn from these two contrasting outcomes.