Democrats would prefer Kamala Harris over Joe Biden as 2024 nominee, new poll shows

Another new poll is out suggesting that Democrats could have a stronger chance at winning in 2024 should President Joe Biden step aside for a younger successor.

The survey, published by The New York Times in partnership with Siena College, was released on Tuesday. It found low numbers of enthusiasm among Democrats for the re-nomination of either Mr Biden or a potential decision by the president against running for reelection in favour of endorsing his vice president, Kamala Harris, to run in his stead.

But the latter option was more popular among members of the president’s party by six percentage points, indicating that Democrats’ primary concern with the Biden brand is the stamina of the candidate himself. There’s a catch, however — the percentage of Democratic primary voters who were unsure about how they would feel about their party’s nominee jumps slightly were Ms Harris to take the reins, and as a result the total percentage of primary voters who were at the very least “satisfied” with their party’s pick was actually lower with Ms Harris at the top of the ticket.

It was a confounding poll result that reveals one fact clearly: Democratic voters are deeply unsure about who they want to be their party’s standard-bearer should the incumbent president be sidelined for any reason. And separately, the poll found concerns about age outweighed any other complaint levied against Mr Biden by primary voters by an almost 2-to-1 margin.

Enthusiasm among primary voters is an important factor for candidates involved in especially close races — or, conversely, can be seen as the reason those races are close to begin with. Mr Biden is thought to be headed for a close reelection fight as voters sour on the idea of re-electing someone who was already the oldest individual to ever take the oath of office of president, even as his likely opponent is battered by escalating legal troubles.

Hillary Clinton’s inability to stoke enthusiasm for her campaign after her defeat of Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primary was viewed as a significant factor leading to her eventual loss to Mr Trump that year.

But as it stands, Mr Biden will almost certainly be his party’s nominee, concerns about age aside. His two announced challengers for the Democratic nomination, Robert F Kennedy Jr and Marianne Williamson, trailed him by more than 50 points each.

The NYT/Siena poll was conducted between 23-27 July and included a subpopulation of 296 likely Democratic primary voters. Information about the poll’s methodology can be found here.