Pete Hegseth’s odds of being confirmed almost halved after Matt Gaetz withdrawal

Pete Hegseth’s odds of being confirmed as secretary of defense almost halved after former attorney general nominee Matt Gaetz stepped down.

Gaetz’s departure after just eight days came amid reports that he had sex with a 17-year-old girl, an allegation he forcefully denies.

Hegseth is facing sexual misconduct allegations of his own, with a woman telling police that he raped her at a California hotel in 2017, an encounter Hegseth has said was consensual.

On the betting site Polymarket, Hegseth’s chances of being confirmed stood at 89 percent when he was announced, but fell as low as 47 percent as of Thursday afternoon. On Friday night, his chances had risen to 56 percent.

Other cabinet picks have better chances of being confirmed, such as director of national intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard at 62 percent, and HHS secretary nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 71 percent.

Others, such as former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee for ambassador to Israel, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum for interior secretary, Rep. Elise Stefanik for U.N. ambassador, and former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi to lead the Department of Justice all have more than a 90 percent chance of being confirmed, according to Polymarket.

Hegseth’s nomination chances took a hit after the release of a 22-page police report detailing the sexual assault allegations against the 44-year-old. The rape allegation was reportedly not known to the Trump transition team before they announced his nomination to lead the Department of Defense.

Hegseth, a former National Guard officer and Fox & Friends weekend host, wasn’t charged in the incident, but he paid the woman in a settlement to avoid a lawsuit that his attorney said was “baseless.”

Gaetz also avoided criminal prosecution after the Department of Justice chose not to charge him following an investigation into possible sex trafficking. He resigned from Congress shortly after his nomination was announced, and just days before the House Ethics Committee was set to vote on releasing a reportedly damning report into allegations of sexual misconduct and illicit drug use.

His nomination ended after several Republican senators made it clear that they wouldn’t vote for the 42-year-old.

Those putting their money on Hegseth’s chances of being confirmed appear hesitant to believe that the Fox News host will get the votes he needs. This comes amid reports that the Trump transition team has been drawing up a list of possible replacements for Hegseth should his nomination crumble.

“People are upset about the distraction. The general feeling is Pete hasn’t been honest,” a source close to Trump told Vanity Fair.

Similarly, The Washington Post reported that a person familiar with the complaint from the woman involved in the incident told the paper that there are concerns within the Trump team that more allegations against Hegseth may come to light.

“There’s a lot of frustration around this,” the person told The Post. “He hadn’t been properly vetted.”

A lawyer for Hegseth said the allegation was “fully investigated and found not to be true.”

“There’s no other skeletons to come out,” Tim Parlatore added, according to The Post. “There’s no reason to withdraw that I’m aware of.”

Polymarket is a site where foreign citizens can bet on U.S. politics, which is illegal in the U.S., using cryptocurrency. The price to bet on a scenario rises or lowers depending on the number of “yes” or “no” bets.