Nikki Haley’s surge chilled by third place in frozen Iowa caucus

The former governor of South Carolina charged into Iowa as 2024 kicked off with the hopes of knocking off Ron DeSantis and snatching a second-place finish, buoyed by a late-game polling surge.

Instead, she ended the night in a close third — all the while declaring that, despite Mr DeSantis pulling off his own sort-of victory, that it was now a “two-person race”.

She now heads to New Hampshire, boosted by her rising poll numbers but with her momentum blunted, at least to some degree, by the lack of a result here tonight.

Ms Haley concluded her battle for the state with remarks at a Marriott in Des Moines that doubled as two caucus precincts; she lost both of them, with Ron DeSantis pulling off a near-upset of his own in one. But in her remarks closing down her campaign’s caucus-night watch party, the former ambassador and governor projected the image of a candidate on the upswing, headed to friendly territory with the wind at her back.

It remains wholly unclear if any of that is true. Donald Trump remains ahead in all available polling of both New Hampshire and South Carolina, two of the upcoming states most favourable to the Haley campaign’s target demographics.

Her unassuming finish in Iowa came despite a usual dose of Iowa shenanigans. This year, turnout was heavily blunted by brutal winter weather and snowy conditions on roads across the state. Ms Haley, unlike any of her opponents, saw her support boosted in multiple precincts by Democratic Iowans who, thanks to state laws, were allowed to switch their party registration on caucus day and vote strategically in the GOP primary; a desperate bid to break the Trump fever gripping the Republican Party.

One of those Democrats was Alan Koslow of Des Moines, who spoke to The Independent after casting his caucus vote for Ms Haley on Monday.

"I see her as a traditional Ronald Reagan Republican... I agree with her almost 100 per cent on her international and national security agenda. I disagree with her, about, probably 92 per cent on her national agenda."

His reason for backing a Trump alternative in the GOP primary was clear: the former president, he says, represents an existential threat to the rule of law.

"He’s an autocrat. I think he’s showing signs of destroying the fabric of American democracy."

Mr Trump was the clear winner of the night, both numerically and in the minds of Beltway pundits. With many questioning whether he would pull off a steep margin of victory, the former president blasted historical precedent aside and tore away more than half of all GOP voters in the state for himself — at press time, he was sitting at 51 per cent in Iowa.

It was a stunning victory — or it would have been for anyone besides Donald Trump. The only thing surprising about the former president’s win was how many pundits, analysts, and even Republicans doubted that his success would be as pronounced as it was. He remains the clear favourite to win the GOP nomination, and his Iowa victory in particular has now set the record for the largest blowout in Iowa caucus history.

Now, in Ms Haley’s words, “on to New Hampshire”. Will the Granite State be the place where Nikki Haley shocks the nation? Or is this just the beginning of the end?