Mike Johnson faces a critical House vote for speaker. Here’s how the election process works

The first order of business for the new House of Representatives, which will meet on Friday to begin the 119th Congress, is to elect a speaker.

The current holder of the gavel, Speaker Mike Johnson, looks to be in better shape than former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was at the start of the 118th Congress, when it took 15 rounds of voting before the Californian was able to get through. He was booted just nine months later, making room for Johnson after weeks of chaos.

Things appeared to be going Johnson’s way until Elon Musk, Donald Trump’s financial supporter and ’First Buddy,’ attempted to sabotage a spending agreement as the president-elect pushed for his requirement that the debt ceiling be increased.

Instead, Johnson did what he and McCarthy mostly did during the 118th Congress, and turned to the Democrats for help in order to pass a temporary spending bill and avoid a government shutdown.

As the Republicans and Democrats head back to the House Friday, the GOP’s majority is slim — 219 seats to the Democrats’ 215 — which gives Johnson less leverage. Meanwhile, several Republicans have shared their reluctance to make Johnson speaker once more.

But one of Johnson’s top calling cards is that he has been endorsed by Trump, who has said he’d be willing to make calls for Johnson. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who headed the effort to block and subsequently remove McCarthy, is no longer part of the calculations. He resigned from his post when he attempted to become Trump’s attorney general and has said that he won’t be taking his seat in the 119th Congress.

But even with the full-throated endorsement of Trump, the Louisiana Representative can only afford one Republican rebellion against his re-election bid when the lower chamber’s members cast their votes.

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie has already stressed his objections to Johnson, telling One America News’s Matt Gaetz Show on Monday evening that he would not back the incumbent.

Elsehwere, Texas Rep. Chip Roy and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Mackey have both defied Trump previously, endorsing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Republican primary. They also voted to certify the 2020 election on January 6, 2021.

Roy said on Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast last month that he wanted to be the chair of the House Rules Committee, which decides what legislation moves on to the full House floor. The Texas representative was one of the 20 Republicans who initially blocked McCarthy’s nomination and subsequently stopped Majority Leader Steve Scalise from becoming speaker.

Johnson can place Roy in charge of Rules and do what he has done in the past — work with Democrats to get a two-thirds majority and bypass the rules.

But the Republicans’ small majority also means any member can go to Johnson with a list of demands and he essentially has to listen to them. In 2023, McCarthy allowed just one member to call for a motion to vacate, which prompted a no-confidence vote in the speaker. While McCarthy said this had been the case before the Democrats got the majority, it led to the end of his speakership when he managed to enrage eight Republicans and every single Democrat. The new rules package would require nine members to push for a motion to vacate.

But with an incoming Trump administration, Republicans have an incentive to get this done fast.

The election of a speaker happens before members are even sworn in. If every lawmaker shows up and votes, Johnson can only afford to lose a single vote. The stakes are high as the House cannot conduct any business before a speaker is elected and the chamber is set to vote to certify Trump’s election victory Monday.

To be elected, a speaker must win a majority of the votes. If all 435 members show up and vote, 218 votes are needed for a majority. With Gaetz out of the chamber, if all 434 members vote, 218 votes are still needed.

That means that Johnson can only lose a single vote, with Massie already committed to opposing him.

There’s no rule stating that the speaker be a member of the House, meaning that members can vote for anyone they want, regardless of whether they have been officially nominated. Members can also simply abstain from voting by saying “present” instead of backing a candidate. The number of votes needed to secure the gavel decreases with the number of absences and “present” votes.

Allies of Johnson are concerned that it may take several rounds of voting for Johnson to get the gavel. In 2023, McCarthy needed 15 rounds of voting before he became speaker.

If Johnson doesn’t get the votes on the first ballot, Republican leaders can move ahead with a second round right away or they can break and try to win over those in their party opposing Johnson. Members may also put forward motions, such as a motion to adjourn the House.

Following the removal of McCarthy in 2023, several other members were nominated and voted on before Johnson was finally elected.