Will Mike Johnson make it? What to look out for ahead of Friday’s House speaker vote

The House and Senate will convene on Friday for the start of the new Congress, giving Donald Trump a Republican trifecta when he returns to Washington 17 days later. The House’s first order of business? Embarking on the semi-annual tradition of cat-herding that is the vote for speaker.

At the beginning of the 118th Congress, House Republicans went through 15 rounds of voting that almost came to blows before they finally nominated Kevin McCarthy in the early hours of January 7, 2023 — only for him to be ejected a little less than nine months later. That in turn led to more chaos in October that culminated in the nomination of Mike Johnson, the little-known but mild-mannered, devoutly religious and highly ideologically conservative back-bencher.

All seemed to work out well for Johnson until last month when Elon Musk, Trump’s financial benefactor and consigliere, torpedoed a stopgap spending agreement and Trump demanded a debt ceiling increase. That plan blew up in Johnson’s face and he wound up doing what he and McCarthy did for most of that Congress: do a clean continuing resolution spending bill with the help of the Democrats because the “hell no” faction of his conference would oppose it.

The House GOP’s majority will be one seat slimmer on Friday, with only 219 seats compared to Democrats’ 212 seats. This will give Johnson significantly less leverage and a number of Republicans have expressed skepticism that Johnson should become speaker again.

But he has numerous advantages. Chief among them is the fact that Trump endorsed Johnson. Not only that, Trump told reporters on New Year’s Eve that he would be willing to make calls on Johnson’s behalf. In addition, unlike in 2023, there will be no Matt Gaetz, who led the charge to block McCarthy and the eventually successful effort to take him out, since Gaetz resigned as part of his failed bid to become Trump’s attorney general.

Still, Johnson faces a minefield as he attempts to keep his gavel. For one, some of the Republicans who have come out against him, such as Chip Roy of Texas and Thomas Massie of Kentucky, have shown they do not fear Trump and have openly defied him in the past, like when they endorsed Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Republican presidential primary and voted to certify the 2020 election results on January 6.

Last month, Roy told Steve Bannon’s War Room show that he wanted to become the chairman of the powerful House Rules Committee, which determines which legislation goes to the floor.

Roy was one of the 20 Republicans who blocked McCarthy’s nomination the first go-around and who sank Steve Scalise’s bid afterward.

This means that Johnson has plenty of incentive to do so. The Speaker has regularly worked his way around the rules and relied on Democrats to get two-thirds of the House to vote for must-pass legislation.

In addition, the small majority means that any Republican can go to Johnson with a list of demands and Johnson will have little choice but to cater to them.

A perfect example? The motion to vacate. In 2023, McCarthy allowed one member to file a motion to vacate, which would trigger a no-confidence vote.

McCarthy argued this had always been the case before the Democrats took over, but it would seal his fate when McCarthy had angered eight Republicans and every Democrat, allowing Gaetz to pull the trigger.

The new proposed rules package would require that nine members join in a motion to vacate, one more than the number that booted McCarthy.

House Republicans also have another powerful incentive to get this done as quickly as possible: Trump. Two years ago, Republicans had control of only one-half of one branch of government when Democrats controlled the Senate and with a Democrat in the White House.

This time, they have to set up an on-ramp for the marathon next few weeks: On Monday, the House will certify the 2024 election results. The next day, the late president Jimmy Carter will lie in state in the Capitol Rotunda until Thursday. Then eleven days later, Trump will be sworn in.

All of this gives Republicans an incentive to get their act together by Friday. But then again, this is the House of Representatives, so don’t expect much.