Who is winning the midterms? These are the races that will tell you

Republicans are heavily favoured to re-take the US House due to a favourable political environment and the effects of the redistricting process, but there is still considerable uncertainty about how Election Night will play out — whether the Republicans will win in a landslide, whether they’ll win narrowly, or whether the Democrats will beat the odds and retain control of the House.

Here are the races Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report suggests watching as the polls close on Tuesday to get an indication of how the night is playing out.

VA-02: Elaine Luria v Jen Kiggins

Ms Luria was first elected to Congress in the Democratic wave of 2018, but is facing a stiff challenge from Republican Jen Kiggans in a district that became slightly more Republican during redistricting. A decidedly moderate Democrat, she also sits on the House select committee investigating the January 6 riot last year. Ms Luria has spent much of her campaign highlighting her pro-democracy work in Congress. If she retains her seat, it could be an indication that the Democrats have a chance to keep control of the House or significantly limit their losses.

VA-07: Abigail Spanberger v Yesli Vega

Like her colleague Ms Luria, the moderate Ms Spanberger was first won her seat in the 2018 wave. She has often progressive Democrats for their rhetoric about defunding the police, but also lambasted Democratic leadership for slow-walking her legislation to ban members of Congress from trading stocks. Her race against Yesli Vega, an ultra-conservative Prince William County commissioner, is expected to be competitive. Ms Vega is part of a new slate of women of color who are running on the Republican slate, though she has courted controvery for her comments about abortion. Ms Spanberger only narrowly won re-election in 2020, and she’s running in a district that is mainly new after redistricting. If Ms Vega wins, the Republicans will likely easily win the House.

VA-10: Jennifer Wexton v Hung Cao

Of the three bellwether races in Virginia, the 10th district, which includes the DC suburbs in Northern Virginia, is the one the Democrats feel most confident about. Ms Wexton, another two-term incumbent, is facing retired US Navy captain Hung Cao in a district that has a Democratic tilt. If Mr Cao wins, it would likely signal the beginning of a red wave.

IN-01: Frank Mrvan v Jennifer-Ruth Green

The first congressional district in Indiana, centred around the majority-Black city of Gary, has long been a Democratic stronghold. The seat was held for decades by Pete Visclosky, who retired after the conclusion of the last Congress and was replaced by Mr Mrvan. Now, Mr Mrvan faces a tough re-election fight against Jennifer-Ruth Green. A Black and Asian pilot, she has attacked Mr Mrvan for serving the interests of “rich white people,” a sign of how Democrats have struggled to win over white working-class voters and are shedding people of color. If Ms Green wins, it will likely mean that Republicans are on their way to a big night.

NH-02: Ann Kuster v Robert Burns

Veteran Democratic Rep Ann Kuster’s district covers much of the northern and western portion of the Granite State. Ms Kuster won re-election in this seat by more than 10 points in both of the last two cycles, but faces a stiffer challenge this time around from Republican Robert Burns. This is a seat that Democrats would expect to hold on a competitive night — the other New Hampshire seat held by Democrat Chris Pappas is projected to be closer.

Other races to watch

Several other races will go a long way in determining which party controls the House and by how much. Three of those are in the Rio Grande Valley of south Texas. South Texas historically counts its votes quickly and has been a historic Democratic stronghold, but that changed when Republicans overperformed in 2020. Conservative Democratic Reps Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez are attempting to win re-election in a reddening region that Latinos feel the national party has neglected. Michelle Vallejo, a progressive Democrat, is also running for a competitive open seat against Republican Monica De La Cruz.

Other high-profile Democrats whose seats appear to be endangered, and perhaps no high-profile Democrat is in more danger than Sean Patrick Maloney — the Democratic campaign chief who has spent lavishly on his own re-election bid against Republican Michael Lawler.

Mr Maloney angered progressive Democrats over the summer when he decided to run in a redrawn district that is currently largely represented by Rep Mondaire Jones. But now he is the second consecutive Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair to be facing an unexpectedly difficult re-election fight after Rep Cheri Bustos of Illinois in 2020. Ms Bustos is retiring at the conclusion of her current term after she nearly lost her district and many incumbent Democrats elected in 2018 lost their seats that cycle.

By the time the polls close on the West Coast, the overall direction of the race will likely be clearer. Republicans are hoping to win seats in traditionally Democratic territory in Oregon and California, though the final results in close races in those states likely will not be known on Election Night.