Five things to watch this week as the Senate tries to pass major climate and tax bill

Senator Joe Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s announcement of a deal on a spending bill to tackle climate change and lower prescription drug prices shocked many in Washington.

Now comes the hard part – actually passing the legislation. Senate Democrats hope to hold a vote on the bill, formally known as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, this week. The plan is to do so through a process called budget reconciliation, which allows for bills to pass with a simple majority and to sidestep a Republican filibuster.

But there are still plenty of hurdles. For bills to pass under reconciliation, they need to be related to the budget and spending. Furthermore, Democrats only have 50 Senators, meaning they need every member of their caucus to vote on it and Vice President Kamala Harris would break the tie.

With that in mind, here are five groups of people to watch this week.

Senator Kyrsten Sinema

Many people mention Mr Manchin and his fellow conservative Democrat Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona in the same breath. But while both have been wary about a budget reconcilation bill, they have reservations for different reasons; Mr Manchin has long had concerns about additional spending and objected to attempts to rein in fossil fuels. But Ms Sinema has expressed nervousness about tax increases. Specifically, the Arizona Democrat has opposed closing what is called the carried interest loophole, which allows partners at private investment funds to have their income taxed as capital gains, at a lower rate than income, according to the Tax Policy Center. Ms Sinema has so far been mum in her response to Mr Manchin and Mr Schumer’s agreement but they need to get her on board if they hope to pass it.

Elizabeth MacDonough

Elizabeth MacDonough doesn’t hold any elected office. But as the Senate parliamentarian, she will determine how much of the Inflation Reduction Act will survive. The Senate parliamentarian subjects legislation to what is called a “Byrd bath”, which determines if a piece of legislation is an “extraneous matter”. In the past, Ms MacDonough has dashed Democrats hopes; last year, she shot down Democrats’ plan to include raising the minimum wage to $15 in the American Rescue Plan and also shot down numerous attempts to include immigration reform in what was Build Back Better.

Senate Republicans

Many Republicans fumed after Mr Manchin and Mr Schumer announced their deal after the Senate passed legislation to support the computer chips industry, since Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said that he would scuttle the chips bill if negotiations continued. Senate Finance Committee ranking Republican Senator Mike Crapo told E&E News that Republicans will “be challenging every piece of it that we can”. They will likely subject numerous parts of the Inflation Reduction Act to parliamentary challenges to weaken it as much possible.

President Joe Biden

The president announced over the weekend that he had a rebound case of Covid-19 following a round of treatment with Paxlovid. But Mr Biden will need to muster every bit of strength he has to push what could likely become his signature legislation without alienating Mr Manchin. Mr Biden’s mention of Mr Manchin in a statement about Build Back Better negotiations in December infamously angered the West Virginia Democrat and led him to oppose it. Mr Manchin will need to walk an even finer line with Ms Sinema to get her on board. Most political prognosticators say that Republicans will likely win the House of Representatives in November, so this is his last chance to pass any legislation relating to climate change.

Moderate Democrats from New Jersey and New York

The House of Representatives is currently out for a district work period. But if the Senate passes the Inflation Reduction Act, it will likely trigger House Speaker Nancy Pelosi bringing members back to Washington to vote on the bill. But many moderate Democrats from states like New York and New Jersey were hoping reconciliation legislation would also roll back a cap on the state and local tax deduction that was put in place with the tax cuts that the Trump administration signed. Representative Tom Suozzi of New York signaled to CNN he was ok with the legislation since it doesn’t raise individual tax rates. Representative Tom Malinowski of New Jersey told The Independent that the cap will expire in 2025 if nothing is done. “There is a group of us that are willing to find a common ground approach that would take care of most of our constituents who are paying high, state and local taxes, but also addressed some of Senator Manchin’s concerns if he and others are not willing to.” Democrats only have a nine-seat majority in the House so they can only afford to lose a few votes, making the passage of the bill all the more precarious.