Political future of Brazil's Bolsonaro hangs in the balance as his trial begins
Brazil’s top electoral court has started hearing a case that could torpedo the political future of former President Jair Bolsonaro by rendering him ineligible for public office for eight years
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Your support makes all the difference.Brazil’s top electoral court on Thursday began hearing a case that could torpedo the political future of former President Jair Bolsonaro by rendering him ineligible for public office for eight years.
Judges are evaluating a case filed by Brazil’s Democratic Labor Party, which claims the far-right leader abused his power by using government communication channels to promote his campaign and cast unfounded doubts on the country’s electronic voting system.
While Bolsonaro often railed against the voting system, the suit’s focus is a meeting last year on July 18 that Bolsonaro convened at the presidential palace with foreign ambassadors, which was broadcast on state television for nearly an hour.
Thursday’s session in the capital of Brasilia began with Judge Benedito Gonçalves reading his report on the case. Already two subsequent sessions have been slated for next Tuesday and next Thursday, but the trial could extend for several months if any of the six other judges requests additional time to review the case.
Both the political party that filed the case will have time to make its arguments, as will Bolsonaro’s lawyers.
In comments to journalists on Wednesday outside the Senate, the former president acknowledged he could be barred from public office, although he denies any wrongdoing.
“The evidence against him is very robust,” said Rodrigo Prando, a political science professor at Mackenzie University in Sao Paulo. “Bolsonaro speaks in live broacasts, on Twitter. I never saw anyone provide so much material against himself as Bolsonaro did.”
Paulo Gonet Branco, one of the top prosecutors at Brazil’s electoral court, favored Bolsonaro’s inegibility in his report on the case, which will be analyzed by the court’s panel. It is comprised of judges from the country’s top courts, the Supreme Court and the superior court of justice, plus two appointees.
Branco’s report asserts that Bolsonaro misled voters about a Federal Police investigation into the 2018 elections in order to claim the country’s voting system isn’t reliable and that he presented that information to ambassadors in the meeting last year. T
he Supreme Court is simultaneously investigating the former president for having shared details of that investigation — a case proceeding under seal.
“I wouldn’t like to lose my political rights,” Bolsonaro told reporters on Wednesday. “I don’t know whether I will be a candidate for mayor or city councillor next year, I don’t know whether I will be a senator or president in the future. But to be a candidate I need to keep my political rights.”
Bolsonaro left Brazil for Florida days before his term ended, and returned on March 30. He has a ceremonial leadership role within his political party and has travelled around Brazil as a critic of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who defeated him in last October’s election that featured the narrowest margin in over three decades.
On Thursday, Bolsonaro traveled to the southern Brazilian city of Porto Alegre, where he will attend a transportation fair and an event of his Liberal Party.
He is also expected to help stump for mayors in next year’s municipal election — whether or not he has his political rights. Surfing the Bolsonaro wave in the 2022 general election, his Liberal Party won more congressional seats than any other and became the biggest in both the Lower House and Senate.
If the electoral court strips Bolsonaro of his political rights, he could appeal to the Supreme Court. However, there are other suits pending with the electoral court seeking the same outcome. And that is just a fraction of his legal troubles, which also include criminal investigations.
Bolsonaro, 68, will continue to wield some political power until the 2026 presidential elections, even if he is declared ineligible to run, said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo. Melo noted that, if that occurs, the next presidential election Bolsonaro could dispute would be in 2034.
“Bolsonaro will be finished as a presidential candidate if he indeed loses this trial,” he said. “Many voters would only vote for him, but from the polling we have seen, the vast majority of conservatives and right-leaning voters are ready to look beyond Bolsonaro and pick any other candidate, even if not supported by him.”
For the time being, though, Bolsonaro’s inelgibility would throw Brazil’s right-wing political hierarchy into disarray.
Other potential standard bearers whose names have circulated are Sao Paulo’s Gov. Tarcísio de Freitas, Minas Gerais’ Gov. Romeu Zema and Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro. All of them, however, trail Bolsonaro in popularity, said Prando.
“Bolsonaro’s profile became very unique, because the right also gets on board. Many (politicians) only include the extreme right,” he said. “In terms of charisma today, too, there is no name like Bolsonaro.”
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Savarese reported from Sao Paulo.