Independent voters could decide the election — and they lean very differently in each state

As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump hit the stage tonight for the presidential debate, they will need to appeal to two main groups who may still be swayed: the undecideds, and the independents.

By nature, independent voters can be hard to pin down. The term encompasses demographic groups from all walks of life, who don’t have a strong allegiance to either the Republicans or the Democrats.

For this reason, a nationwide picture of how independents will vote can be difficult to predict — but statewide data can be more telling, as independent voters are shaped by similar local factors, dialogues, and policy issues.

Among independents, Harris leads in all the swing states — except Arizona, where Trump leads by a substantial +14 points. The figures are from a set of new polls by Morning Consult up to September 8.

Who independent voters want as the next president varies significantly from state to state, with Harris’ lead in the swing states ranging from +20 points in Wisconsin, to just +5 in Pennsylvania.

But there is more to independents than just swing states. In two overall Republican states, where Trump won the last two elections, the polls show that Harris has the support of independent voters.

Trump has the lead in both Florida and Texas, by +2 points and +9 points.

Yet when looking just at independent voters, the numbers switch up in favor of a Harris presidency; with a substantial +10-point lead for the Democratic candidate in Florida.

Tonight’s debate will be in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, a state which has become a weekly pitstop for both presidential campaigns struggling to carve out a lead.

Among independent voters, Harris is ahead, but by a smaller margin than other states (+5 points).

Notably, 1 in 5 independent voters in Pennsylvania are undecided or voting for a third party — presenting a major opportunity for either Harris or Trump to still swing the needle.

The economy is overwhelmingly the top issue in Pennsylvania, according to a late August poll from Emerson College, more than most other states. And independent voters are even more likely than the average Pennsylvanian to view the economy as the top issue (58 per cent compared to 51 per cent).

13 per cent of independents also view “threats to democracy” as the main issue facing Pennsylvania, higher than the average voter.

Arizona is the one swing state where Trump leads overall and among independent voters, according to Morning Consult’s polls. So what are the key issues that set this state apart?

Though 27 per cent of Arizona independents believe the economy is the top issue, this is nearly half of the number in Pennsylvania, and lower than the overall state average.

Instead, 1 in 4 independent voters (25 per cent) view immigration as the top issue, in line with the Arizona average (26 per cent).

Arizona independents are more likely to view housing affordability as the top issue (16 per cent) than the average Arizonan (13 per cent), and are also more concerned about threats to democracy (11 per cent vs 8 per cent).

In Florida, independents seem to be voting substantially differently to the statewide trend. But the reason why is not so clear, according to an Emerson College poll from early September.

On an issues-based level, Florida independents are slightly more likely to place abortion access as the top issue, with 11 per cent compared to 10 per cent. They are also less likely to be concerned about housing affordability (14 per cent, versus the statewide 17 per cent).

In general, the economy is the top issue in Florida for a third of independent and statewide voters, followed by housing affordability, and immigration (11 per cent).

It is difficult to say whether how exactly the profile of independent voters in Florida differs from local Democrats and Republicans. However, Harris has undoubtedly made real gains in Florida since Biden stepped down; and with Trump ahead by just +2 points, an independent swing to the left may be troublesome news for his campaign.