Voters split on control of Congress ahead of midterm elections, new poll finds
A Republican-controlled House will have the power to install a GOP presidential candidate in the White House in 2024 regardless of voter preferences
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Your support makes all the difference.A recent tracking poll of voters’ preferred choice for their congressional representatives shows Democratic candidates with a one-point edge over Republicans, 43 per cent to 42 per cent, with 16 per cent of respondents saying they have no opinion or don’t know who they’ll vote for.
The poll, which was commissioned by Politico and conducted by Morning Consult, found 860 of 2,005 voters surveyed would vote for Democratic congressional candidates if the election were held today, while 833 respondents said they’d vote for the GOP candidate on the ballot, and 312 expressed no opinion or said they did not know.
With a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction, Democrats could have as much as a three-point lead or a one-point deficit if the election were held today.
The poll, conducted between 15 and 17 April, shows many voters haven’t made a choice as to the candidates they intend to vote for as states begin their primary elections, which will determine the Republican and Democratic candidates who will face off in November’s general election.
Yet the picture is not as rosy for Democrats as the poll may lead some to believe. The party controlling the White House almost always loses seats in the midterm congressional election, and Democrats’ slim majorities — an evenly-split Senate and a single-digit margin in the House — make it easy for Republicans to gain the small number of seats they will need to seize control of Congress.
A GOP takeover of the House could portend more trouble ahead for President Joe Biden should he decide to run for re-election.
Unless Congress takes steps to reform the 1887 Electoral Count Act, a Republican-controlled House could vote to reject electoral votes from any swing state won by Mr Biden in the 2024 general election and install a Republican candidate in the White House regardless of the wishes of American voters.
And because Republicans in state legislatures across the country have drawn congressional districts favouring their party, Democrats are unlikely to regain control of the House in the next decade if they lose it this year.
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