A neck-and-neck Senate race in Maryland is causing big problems for Democrats

A race for US Senate in deep-blue Maryland remains in a dead heat thanks to the persistence of a well-known Republican candidate, complicating the electoral map for Democrats this fall.

Larry Hogan’s campaign for the state’s open Senate seat held by retiring Senator Ben Cardin is tied with his opponent, Angela Alsobrooks, according to an AARP poll of likely voters, with both candidates sitting at 46 percent in the race.

The hotly contested race comes as little surprise to Marylanders, who know Hogan from his two terms as governor where he enjoyed some of the highest popularity ratings of any state leader in the country. He was widely viewed as the only Republican with a serious chance of winning the seat before the governor announced his candidacy.

Alsobrooks, meanwhile, remains a relatively lower-profile politician for voters outside of Prince George’s County where she has served as executive. What she lacks in statewide recognition, however, she makes up with strong ties to the national Democratic Party as well the Maryland Democratic political machine. She has allies in not just Kamala Harris, the top of her party’s ticket, but also incumbent Maryland Governor Wes Moore, who is popular in his own right and has been eyed as a possible national candidate too.

Aside from the hand-wringing it will inevitably cause at DNC headquarters, the poll lays out a picture of a race which is clearly winnable for either candidate, though they will have to pursue markedly different goals to do so. But it does mean one thing for sure: Democrats will have to spend money to protect a Senate seat they otherwise would have been able to write off as a safe hold.

Hogan, as a well-known former governor representing a party which has become deeply unpopular in the state, needs to continue making the case for voters to separate him from Donald Trump and MAGA Republicanism in their minds. He also needs to convince winnable Democrats who supported his two bids for the governor’s mansion that his presence in the Senate — which could shift control of the chamber into Republican hands — that a vote for him is a vote for a candidate who will stand up to that potential GOP majority.

“I’m going to be a guy that’s willing to stand up to both parties and try to represent all the people in Maryland,” he told The Independent in an interview earlier this month.

open image in gallery

Alsobrooks, meanwhile, has ground to make up with Democrats as well, though for a different reason. Despite having an unfavorability rating lower than 20 percent, the Prince George’s county executive is only viewed favorably by four in ten voters — meaning that a sizable majority doesn’t know her at all. Her work over the next few months is to introduce herself to as many voters as possible, while also linking her campaign closely to Kamala Harris and the Democratic ticket as a whole.

Harris seems more than willing to help her do that. The vice president campaigned together with Alsobrooks in June, before Joe Biden stepped aside from the 2024 race. The Democrats’ Senate candidate will headline a virtual rally Tuesday evening for the Harris campaign; this comes after she delivered a speech to the DNC in Chicago last week.

Given that the state neighbors Washington DC, it’s highly likely that Harris will make another stop to boost her ally before November.

The Independent reached out to both the Alsobrooks and Hogan campaigns for comment on Tuesday’s AARP poll results. Hogan’s campaign provided a statement from the governor in response, characterizing his campaign as having an “underdog” mentality while adding that the poll showed a “palpable enthusiasm” for the governor’s candidacy.

open image in gallery

“I’ve been clear from the start that we are the underdogs in this race. People have always counted us out — and in this deep blue state, during this unprecedented and chaotic time in American politics, this uphill battle is a daunting climb,” said the former governor. “In spite of all of that, the palpable enthusiasm of Maryland voters for independent leadership has given our campaign real momentum, and the chance to defy the odds.”

“No one will outwork us. We have been to every corner of the state, reached almost 100 stops on our Strong Independent Leadership Tour, and contacted over 120,000 voters in the general election. We’ve beaten the odds before, and with the grassroots support of Democrats, Independents and Republicans in every corner of the state, we are ready to do it again.”

Alsobrooks’ campaign spokesperson, Gina Banks, told The Independent: “The stakes of this race couldn’t be higher. This race will determine whether Democrats defend our Senate Majority or whether Larry Hogan hands Republicans a Senate Majority and empowers Republicans to control the agenda for our country. Marylanders and Angela share a vision for the future for our state and country — that’s why she’s fighting to defend our freedoms and stand up for our working families.”