Presidential election: Hillary Clinton’s support among millennials surges at last

Hillary Clinton, who struggled to connect with young Americans for much of the 2016 election season, has at last won over millennial voters, according to several new polls.

During the presidential primaries, it was Bernie Sanders – her progressive rival for the Democratic nomination – who commanded the support of those under 30, winning more of their votes than Ms Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump combined.

As recently as mid-September, when the former Secretary of State made a major address aimed squarely at millennials, one national poll found that 44 per cent of voters under 35 planned to cast their ballots for a third-party candidate.

Yet a month later, a new survey conducted by the Harvard Institute of Politics suggests the Democrat has opened up a 28-point lead over Mr Trump among voters aged 18 to 29, overturning one of this election’s most enduring narratives.

Ms Clinton had the support of 49 per cent of those surveyed, while Mr Trump had just 21 per cent. Libertarian Gary Johnson received 14 per cent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein a mere five per cent.

That trend is also reflected in a study by the Black Youth Project at the University of Chicago, which before the televised presidential debates put Ms Clinton’s support at less than 40 per cent of voters aged 18 to 30. Now she looks set to match the 60 per cent share achieved by President Barack Obama in 2012.

Ms Clinton is also at 60 per cent among young voters in a new Rock the Vote/IPSOS/USA Today poll, while a tracking poll by Morning Consult found her youth support surging by more than 10 points between September and October.

While Ms Clinton’s support has grown overall since the debates and the emergence on 7 October of the 2005 Access Hollywood tape, on which Mr Trump could be heard boasting about sexually assaulting women, no age group has surged to her side as quickly as millennials.

In the Harvard survey, which was conducted between 7 and 17 October, 49 per cent of respondents said they “definitely” intended to vote in 2016, compared to 48 per cent at the same point in 2012. More than 70 per cent of Clinton backers said they were “enthusiastic” in their support of the Democrat, compared to 65 per cent of prospective Trump voters.

In the wake of Mr Sanders’ primary defeat, it seems many young people have toyed with the idea of voting for a third-party candidate. But while almost all of Ms Clinton and Mr Trump’s voters said they were decided, more than a third of Mr Johnson’s supporters suggested they might change their minds before casting their votes on 8 November.

The Harvard survey also found Ms Clinton’s margin over the Republican among young black voters – 85 per cent – is the same as Mr Obama enjoyed in 2012.

Political scientist John Della Volpe, director of polling for the Harvard Institute of Politics survey, said the debates had been decisive.

“From my interviews, it was clear that a fairly significant number of young people hadn’t really seen [Ms Clinton] perform in a long format until then,” Mr Della Volpe told Vox. “An overwhelming majority of millennials saw her with fresh eyes – and, generally speaking, they liked what they saw."