Want to know if Trump or Harris will win? Watch these House races

A new batch of polls for the swing states from various outlets dropped on Wednesday evening, to mixed reactions.

Some Democrats and even some Republicans have taken to discarding polls overall and looking at early voting numbers instead, since people in swing states like Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin have already begun to cast their ballots. But this is an imprecise science, since it only reveals party registration. Plenty of registered Republicans may not pull the lever for Trump, and vice versa.

Uncertainty is probably the worst part of the final days before an election, especially in a coin-flip election. Voters want certainty, even if it is a result they would not like, as it gives them a chance to gird themselves.

But while The Independent can’t necessarily offer a crystal ball, Inside Washington might be able to offer one early indicator of how the races will swing. As one might remember, this time last year, House Republicans coalesced around making Mike Johnson the House speaker after three weeks of chaos. That was a fascinating race to watch, especially after some swing-district Republicans rejected making Jim Jordan speaker and conservatives roundly opposed House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s bids.

Now, they are all running for re-election — and there have been some surprises. Unlike the Senate, where they seriously fear they might lose seats, Democrats are feeling pretty good about the House. Meanwhile, Johnson is fighting like the devil to hold onto his narrow majority. Within each of these races lie a multitude of battleground areas within the must-win states.

Here’s Inside Washington’s breakdown of the must-watch House races that could show us who wins the White House.

On the surface, watching New York and California on election night might seem counterintutive. Both states are solidily Democratic. But, as we explained last month when New York City Mayor Eric Adams was indicted, Republicans won their existing majority in the House partially because the candidates for governor underperformed. That meant Republicans in Long Island and upstate New York overperformed and got swept in. Then, across the country, Gavin Newsom’s underperformance meant incumbent Republicans that Democrats wanted to beat stayed in place in southern California.

Many of these Republicans won in districts that Joe Biden won in 2020. But it depends entirely on margins. Some, like Representative Anthony D’Esposito, whose Long Island district voted 14.6 points for Biden, are almost certain to lose. But if others, like Representative Mike Lawler, who has run as a moderate and led the charge to kick out George Santos, lose or face a tighter race, it might show that Democrats are turning out in high numbers.

Similarly, if southern California Republicans like Representative Mike Garcia, who voted to overturn the 2020 election, and Michelle Steel, who represents Orange County, lose, it means Democrats are in for a wave year.

If they hang on, Trump will either win or keep it close.

Like everything else this election, it will come down to Pennsylvania. Harris and Trump both see the Keystone State as their path to the White House. Similarly, Senator Bob Casey, a member of a political dynasty who changed his position on abortion rights, is in a surprisingly tough re-election.

But Pennsylvania also has three House races rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.

Democratic Representative Susan Wild first won her seat in 2018 after Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court required a fairer congressional map than the ones Republicans in Pennsylvania’s legislature had drawn. The district includes formerly working-class steel hubs like Allentown and Bethlehem. Wild won the district with only 2 percent of the vote in 2022. If she loses this time around, then that means Trump has probably won Pennsylvania in a wave.

The second district to watch is Pennsylvania’s 8th district, which includes Biden’s hometown of Scranton but also Luzerne County, a classic white, working-class Obama-Trump county. Representative Matt Cartwright won re-election in 2020 despite Trump winning the presidential election there, and he then won it again in 2022. Republicans have put Cartwright in their crosshairs for years, but he keeps hanging on. If he stays on, Democrats should feel optimistic.

The last district to watch is Pennsylvania’s 10th district. Scott Perry, a former House Freedom Caucus Chairman, has been one of the most caustic hardliners in the House. In 2022, Perry said that FBI agents had seized his phone in relation to his attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential for Trump.

Democrats are running Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor, who has noted in the past that Casey and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro have both won in that district. If Perry loses this race, that’s a pretty good sign Harris will have won Pennsylvania.

Trump and his running mate JD Vance have gone all-in on the Tar Heel state. Just this week alone, Trump visited Asheville, Greenville, Concord and Greensboro — though his visit to Greenville turned out to be a dud.

Many people have paid attention to the governor’s race, which features Trump-backed Mark Robinson, a controversial candidate almost certain to lose.

But the bigger bellwether is North Carolina’s 1st district. After Republicans in the state legislature redrew the state’s congressional district, three congressional Democrats announced they would not run for re-election. But Representative Don Davis, a freshman Democrat, is running for re-election.

The district has a large Black population and has voted Democratic for more than a century. But while it does include some of the Blackest counties in the state — like Bertie County and Northampton County — a large proportion of the population is now white.

If Davis wins, it will be because because he ran up the scoreboard in the Blacker counties. If he performs well in Pitt, where Greenville is located, that means Harris has a fighting chance of winning North Carolina.

If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he needs to win at least one other blue wall state like Michigan or Wisconsin, as well as North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. While Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego looks almost guaranteed to beat election denier and former news anchor Kari Lake in the Senate race, the House races look more contentious.

Republican Representative Juan Ciscomani represents Arizona’s 6th district. It’s located right on the US-Mexico border, which has made it prime for Republicans to visit to hammer Democrats on migrants crossing illegally. But it also voted for Biden.

Ciscomani has largely voted in line with other Republicans and he even voted to make Jordan speaker. He now faces a rematch against Kirsten Engel. If Ciscomani hangs on, there’s a pretty good shot that Trump will win Arizona.

Last comes Arizona’s 2nd district. Eli Crane, a retired Navy SEAL, flipped the seat in 2022 after redistricting made it much redder. Since then, he’s become one of the biggest firebrands in the House. He opposed Kevin McCarthy as speaker and was one of seven Republicans who joined Matt Gaetz’s coup against McCarthy.

He’s now running against a former Navajo Nation president and many of the Navajo in Arizona live in the district. The Cook Political Report recently moved the district from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Of course, that means Crane will likely win — but his performance will show how strong turnout will be for Republicans, including Trump.