Swing state won by Trump in 2020 is now in play for Harris, political forecaster says

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Andrew Feinberg

White House Correspondent

North Carolina could be in play for Democrats this year after voting for Donald Trump in the 2020 election, a new report reveals.

Trump won North Carolina by just over a point in 2020, his closest win out of any state that year. Now, the Tar Heel state is a toss-up and could go to Kamala Harris come November, according to a new report from the nonpartisan organization Cook Political Report.

Trump held a solid lead in the Tar Heel state before Biden dropped out of the race, polling from earlier this summer revealed. The former president led Biden 45.6 percent to 38.7 percent in July.

Trump and Harris are now tied at 45.7 percent, according to the report.

This lead isn’t because Harris is taking Trump’s voters, according to analyst Amy Walter. Rather, it’s because Harris has improved her vote share, which means more people who lean Democrat are willing to vote for her.

Her success was driven by Democrats, Black voters and independents, the report revealed.

“In other words, the race is tightening, not because Harris is cutting into Trump’s vote, but because Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are coming home,” Walter wrote.

This comes as Harris leads Trump in national polling. Harris has a 3.4-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls taken on Wednesday.

A new poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University also shows Harris beating Trump by seven points when race and gender are considered by participants.

“When voters are made to think about the race or gender of the candidates, Harris’ lead grows substantially; when they’re not, support is essentially tied,” the university said in a statement.

Earlier research from the Cook Political Report also showed that Harris had a lead in six out of seven swing states, with Trump holding strong in Nevada. Meanwhile, in a Trump-Biden matchup, the former president led in six states.

Their report showed Harris’s strongest lead is in Arizona, where Biden won by just 0.4 percent in 2020.

Polling could also change in the coming days as voters reevaluate their choice after independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Trump last week. While it’s not clear where his voters will go, they could have an impact on the outcome in swing states.