Trump leads Biden in swing states amid terrible ratings for incumbent

Former President Donald Trump leads incumbent President Joe Biden in both Georgia and Michigan, polling by CNN has found.

Mr Trump leads Mr Biden in Georgia by 49 to 44 per cent and in Michigan by 50 to 40 per cent. Survey respondents in both states hold negative views of Mr Biden’s policies, job performance, and sharpness.

In Michigan, 10 per cent said they don’t support either candidate. Mr Trump’s lead is increased by voters who say they didn’t vote in 2020 – this group breaks for the former president by 26 points in Georgia and by 40 in Michigan. Respondents who say they voted in 2020 reported having broken for Mr Biden in the last election but they now lean in Mr Trump’s direction in both swing states. Mr Biden is currently retaining fewer of his 2020 supporters compared to Mr Trump.

While Mr Trump faces the challenge of getting politically disengaged people to turn up to the polls, Mr Biden is confronted with having to convince those who backed him in the past to do so again, despite their negative views of his leadership.

Thirty-five per cent in Michigan and 39 in Georgia approve of Mr Biden’s job performance and 54 per cent in Georgia and 56 per cent in Michigan say his policies have led to a worse economy.

Among Democrats and other voters leaning towards the party, about 40 per cent say that Mr Biden’s economic policies haven’t improved the economy. Similarly, about four in 10 say the US is doing the right amount to help Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza. About a third say the US is helping too much and about a quarter say the aid is not enough. Among voters under the age of 35 in both Michigan and Georgia, almost half say the US is doing too much. That’s about 20 points higher than among those over the age of 50.

Among voters in both states, most say that he doesn’t have the attributes they seek in a president regarding policy, ability to grasp their problems, or his stamina and sharpness.

While Mr Trump gets better marks on those issues, Mr Biden is ahead when it comes to temperament, with about half of respondents in each state saying he doesn’t have the temperament they want in a president, while 57 per cent in Michigan and 58 per cent in Georgia say the same about Mr Trump.

On policy, only nine per cent of voters under 45 say Mr Biden represents an ideal candidate. On being able to understand their problems, only 11 per cent of these voters in Georgia and nine per cent in Michigan say they believe Mr Biden does.

Younger voters break in Mr Trump’s favour by 50 to 40 per cent in Georgia, and by 49 to 38 per cent in Michigan.

Mr Biden has the support of 90 per cent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters over the age of 45 in both states, but just 78 per cent of those leaning towards the Democrats under the age of 45 in Michigan and 80 per cent in Georgia.

In Georgia, most approve of the charges brought against Mr Trump in the state for election interference, with 47 per cent stating that if the allegations against the former president are accurate, they would disqualify him from holding office. Fourteen per cent say the charges would cast doubt on his fitness to serve if revealed to be true. In Michigan, 46 per cent say the election interference charges against Mr Trump are disqualifying if found to be true, and another 14 per cent say it would cast doubt on his fitness for office.

But among the voters who are likely to vote in a Republican primary, 64 per cent in Michigan, and 70 per cent in Georgia say the charges are irrelevant. In both swing states, 27 per cent of those supporting Mr Trump against Mr Biden say that a conviction for Mr Trump would cast doubt on his fitness for office.