Coronavirus: Hurdles await Congress next month if talks towards a fifth relief bill start

Let the actual negotiating begin – maybe – now that House Democrats have passed a $3trn coronavirus relief bill that is headed nowhere but a bookshelf in Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office.

Without any Republican support, the Democratic-run chamber returned to Washington on Friday to approve a measure Republican leader Kevin McCarthy says was crafted entirely without GOP input.

The speaker acknowledged as much late last week, calling the massive Covid-19 relief measure little more than a "marker" for future negotiations towards what would be the fifth emergency coronavirus package, if it ever comes today, that would have been approved by both chambers and signed into law by Donald Trump.

"This is one of the broadest bills that we've ever seen come before the Congress. And let me say what is in it, as you say what might not be in it," Ms Pelosi told MSNBC. "It is a bill that is our marker, that we are putting down for the American people."

But for what exactly House Democrats have put down a marker is unclear. There are no ongoing negotiations about a fifth relief bill, and none are expected to break out this month.

"I don't think there is any question that there will be," William Hoagland, a former senior Senate aide, said Monday of another Covid-19 bill. But no one in Washington expects a deal this week.

Empty table

For Ms Pelosi to have anyone with which to talk about a fifth relief bill, some Republican official from the House, Senate or White House would have to show up. None are rushing to the negotiating table. At least not yet.

"I don't think we have yet felt the urgency of acting immediately. That time could develop, but I don't think it has yet," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said last week.

"I think we all believe that another bill probably is going to be necessary," Mr McConnell said. "But I'm prepared today to put a precise date on when that will be."

The Kentucky Republican is scheduled to send the Senate home on Thursday for a Memorial Day recess that will span all of next week. That means talks about a fifth bill will not even start until the first week of June; from there, it could take several weeks to arrive a deal.

Larry Kudlow, Mr Trump's top economic adviser and a negotiator on the last coronavirus bill, says there are no talks going on now. On Friday, he cast even more doubt on another bill as White House officials and GOP legislators gamble that states starting to reopen will juice the crippled economy enough to avoid spending more taxpayer funds.

"Another $3 trillion package seems off target to me," Mr Kudlow told reporters, adding White House officials are taking a "wait-and-see" approach to a possible additional bill.

"Let's see how it goes," he said after in recent weeks suggesting Trump administration officials would prefer seeing how some states beginning to reopen might boost the flailing economy. "I don't believe we can spend ourselves into prosperity."

Mr Trump's top spokeswoman, Kayleigh McEnany, says her boss is "open" to another relief package. But he is not yet ready to insist on one, she said.

'Embarrassment'

Still, experts see a number of coming pressures that could force a deal next month.

"The high unemployment rate for May will remain high in June, and the figure will be released in early July. That will be front and centre as Congress, I assume, is still planning on an August recess," Mr Hoagland said. "The combination of dire unemployment rate figures, the end of the $600 additional [unemployment] benefit, and the embarrassment of Congress recessing, I think is enough to force a compromise on a bill, either in June or early July."

Despite those even more dire economic figures released late last week that show a steeper drop off than during the Great Depression, congressional Democrats and Republicans appear to be drifting even farther apart on every aspect of the government's coronavirus response.

One reason congressional Republicans and the White House are moving slowly on a fifth bill: The federal government has yet to roll out billions of dollars in aid from previous Covid-19 relief measures. That's something Mr McConnell has noted repeatedly in recent weeks, meaning he has no plans to even discuss the contents of new legislation until it has.

Another major obstacle will be a president who is actively trying to downplay the continued threat from the virus.

"It could be that testing is, frankly, overrated. Maybe it is overrated," Mr Trump said during Thursday remarks at a medical supply distribution facility in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

"And don't forget: We have more cases than anybody in the world. But why? Because we do more testing," Mr Trump said in remarks that drew Democratic backlash. "When you test, you have a case. When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing, we would have very few cases."

Overcoming a re-election-minded – and stubborn – Donald Trump could be the biggest challenge for Ms Pelosi and Democrats who want to use more federal monies, especially to help cash-strapped states and cities.

Should all sides in Washington suddenly return to the negotiating table, one analyst suggests they do so by looking at the impacts of the virus with a city-by-city mindset.

Alan Berube of the nonpartisan Brookings Institute says data the think tank reviewed "show that the impacts of this downturn are not being felt evenly across the country, nor even within states -- illustrating the need for tailored assistance to heavily affected areas."