This man backed the Iowa winner three times – here is his 2024 prediction

If a Republican presidential candidate wants to win the Iowa caucus, with its heavily white, heavily evangelical and churchgoing population, they need to win over Bob Vander Plaats.

Few people have had a front-row seat to Iowa’s evangelical politics than Bob Vander Plaats. In 2008, he served as Mike Huckabee’s state party chairman when he pulled off an improbable win in the Iowa caucus. Then in 2012, he endorsed Rick Santorum before he pulled off a squeaker against Mitt Romney in the first in the nation contest. In 2016, he backed Sen Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the senator pulled off a victory against Donald Trump.

As the head of the Iowa Family Leader, Republican candidates actively court him. Earlier this year, the Family Leader held a forum with almost all of the major candidates for the Republican nomination for president, with one notable exception: former president Donald Trump.

Mr Trump will repeat his absence as he skips the first GOP debate in Milwaukee next week. For his part, Mr Vander Plaats has expressed his concerns about Mr Trump, posting on X – formerly known as Twitter – earlier this month that some supporters of the former president are looking elsewhere.

But in an interview with The Independent, Mr Vander Plaats said that he was not trying to criticise Mr Trump.

“I just believe he presents our biggest risk [to] winning in 2024 the general election. My fear is much of America has reached an exhaustion level with him and made up their mind on him.”

Mr Vander Plaats’s words differ from some other evangelicals who have wholeheartedly embraced Mr Trump. Many social conservatives credit Mr Trump with nominating conservative Supreme Court Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, which led to the overturning of Roe v Wade in last year’s Dobbs v Jackson decision.

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Earlier this summer, the Faith & Freedom Coalition hosted its Road to the Majority Conference where every Republican candidate for president spoke to the evangelical faithful. But the former president had special vaunted status, giving the closing speech during the keynote dinner as he touted his role in ending the long-established right to seek an abortion.

Many Republican strategists, analysts and even elected officials said the Dobbs decision played a role in Republicans underperforming in the 2022 midterm elections. But Mr Vander Plaats said he was frustrated by Beltway consultants and Republicans. He noted that Republicans who supported restrictions on abortion such as Govs Kim Reynolds in Iowa, Brian Kemp of Georgia and Ron DeSantis of Florida all won re-election.

“I mean, if they were very clear, not nuanced on the life issue, they won,” he said.

Similarly, he faulted Mr Trump and pointed out that many of the candidates the former president backed waffled on the issue of abortion and in turn lost their races.

So far, Mr Trump’s hold on the GOP, including in Iowa, seems to be secure. A New York Times/Siena College poll earlier this month shows that while 54 per cent of Republicans nationally support Mr Trump, only 44 per cent support Mr Trump in Iowa. Still, he significantly leads his nearest competitor, Florida Gov Ron DeSantis.

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Mr Vander Plaats has yet to endorse a candidate. But he has praised Mr DeSantis, and other “fresh faces,” such as Sen Tim Scott (R-SC), whom he said has a “compelling story;” former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley; businessman and gadfly candidate Vivek Ramaswamy; and former vice president Mike Pence, an ardent evangelical Christian.

“I think that's why you're seeing the poll numbers ... Iowans are kicking the tires to really determine who they like, who's capturing their interests of who could be president and be the leader at this point,” he said.

Mr DeSantis has made a full-court press for Iowa even as his campaign falls significantly behind. He’s visited the state regularly and has said he would consider making Ms Reynolds his running mate while Never Back Down, a super PAC that supports him, has chairpeople in all 99 counties in the must-win state.

The Florida governor hopes that his policies such as a six-week ban on abortion and restrictions on how gender identity and sexual orientation are taught in K-12 schools could give him an edge against Mr Trump. But he has also seen his poll numbers drop over time and posted disappointing fundraising numbers.

Still, Mr Vander Plaats said that nobody should write off Mr DeSantis.

“I think it'd be a big mistake to count him out,” he said, noting that Republican voters are still considering who to support.

“They break late,” he said of Iowans. “So I would worry much more around Thanksgiving time, first of December, than I would at state fair time and Labor Day.”