Biden may alienate young voters with handling of Gaza conflict, poll finds

Joe Biden’s management of the US’s role in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip is deeply unpopular thanks in part to a serious divide among Americans generationally regarding the war.

A new poll from The New York Times and Siena College finds Mr Biden trailing his expected 2020 challenger, Donald Trump, when Americans are asked which politician they’d trust more to lead the US through the crisis. It’s a finding that underscores how badly the incumbent president’s numbers are with voters in his own party as he heads into an election year facing calls not just from Republicans but from Democrats as well to step aside and let a younger candidate run.

Mr Biden’s support from young voters is cratering. Nearly three out of four voters ages 18-29 say they disapprove of Mr Biden’s handling of the conflict — a dismal sign for an incumbent who is consumed with the task of shoring up a coalition that in 2020 included a major surge in the youth vote. Younger voters turned out in 2020 and largely voted against Donald Trump; an analysis from Tufts University found that the percentage of young voters who participated in 2020 jumped 11 points from the previous election cycle.

The reason for the disillusionment of Mr Biden’s younger supporters on this issue is clear: Millennials and Gen Z are more broadly opposed to the Israeli government’s handling of the conflict, which has claimed more than 19,000 lives and has yet to result in the death of any prominent members of Hamas leadership.

Recent headlines have exacerbated distrust in the Israeli military effort and the Biden administration. US officials continue to insist that Israel is working hard to minimise civilian casualties, while the Israeli military was forced in recent days to admit the mistaken killing of three of their own released hostages as well as more than 100 military service members in friendly fire incidents. Meanwhile, photos and video depicting an unspeakable humanitiarian tragedy unfolding in the Gaza Strip continue to roll out across social media, sparking further outrage.

On Tuesday, the Biden administration was expected to veto another call for a ceasefire by the UN Security Council, which adjourned at noon to continue negotiations over the proposed resolution. The US previously vetoed a similar measure on 8 December.

The president’s poll numbers spell a dire scenario for Democrats, who are less certain than ever that Mr Biden can win a general election in 2024 and are faced with the prospect of watching an agonising rematch of the 2020 election play out over the next year. Voters are broadly unhappy with that prospect, and as a result the 2024 election is shaping up to greatly resemble the 2016 election in terms of Americans’ dissatisfaction with their choices of leadership.

Mr Trump, following his loss and knock-down drag-out refusal to accept the 2020 election results, remains the heavy favourite to win the Republican nomination. He now faces 91 felony counts stemming from four different criminal indictments, including two related to his effort to rewrite the election results in the last presidential cycle. Should he win in 2024, he is promising a massive expansion of the powers of the presidency which is reported to include a total erosion of the independence of the US Justice Department. With that having taken place, he hopes to force the US government to prosecute Joe Biden and his family while wiping away his own federal criminal charges.

On the Democratic side, concerns about Mr Biden’s age continue to erode his support among not just Democrats but the key independent voters he will need to turn out in battleground states to secure victory. Polls for months have indicated that the incumbent president now trails Mr Trump in several, if not all, of the battleground states that decided the last election.

His campaign hopes to ride a wave of grassroots support to victory that first erupted in 2022 with the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v Wade. Democrats are hoping abortion ballot measures will be in play in several states; Vice President Kamala Harris is also set to hit the campaign trail to gin up support around the issue in January. The campaign’s top communications official told CNN that abortion rights will be a “central pillar” of Mr Biden’s re-election bid going forward.

“It’s critical that we continue to lift up these stories and really remind women what’s at stake in this election, and really the choice that they have before them,” Mr Biden’s campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez told the network.